Kana mafuta mutengo ichamuka Forecast

Kuma1990, Russian indasitiri kwave zvachose kuparadzwa, uye kwainyanya mari munyika bhajeti aiva mafuta. Izvi Nyanzvi refu vachinzi "tsono mafuta", sezvo novimba kutengeswa mbishi zvinhu kunotiita nyore. Mumakore achangopfuura, tine zvakanaka akanzwa. Matambudziko upfumi hwenyika uye zvematongerwo enyika zvakatungamirira kuderedza mitengo mafuta, uye mumwe nomumwe wedu nezvishamiso: kana mafuta mutengo ichamuka?

Sei pamusika

Chokutanga, ngationei kupindura mubvunzo: Chii chinoratidza mutengo huni? Mari chero chigadzirwa kunoenderana zvitengeswa uye kudiwa. Kana chigadzirwa chinodiwa zvishoma uye akasikwa guru, mutengo wawo vaizongoguma achawa - vanofanira zvimwe kurasa nhumbi. Mafuta rinoshandiswa kugadzirwa, saka kudiwa napo mukuru mamiriro munyika upfumi. Mumakore achangopfuura kwave kune kwete kumisa, uye kuderedza pachiyero indasitiri, kunoda zvishoma mafuta, uye taura kwete chete haana kuwira - kumera nokuda Saudi Arabia wokuti. Supply kwazvo kudiwa, saka mutengo rawa. Zvaizoratidza sokuti mhinduro yomubvunzo wokuti kana kuwedzera mutengo chemafuta, ari nyore chaizvo: kana kugadzirwa kuchawedzera. Asi pane zvimwewo.

undercover mutambo

Mari Mahydrocarbon kunobva mutemo. Hazvina chakavanzika kuti West agara akatarira neshanje panguva zvikuru pfuma Russia, uye kwenguva yakareba basa kwakaderera munyika kuti zvibvire kuti ndiparadzemo chimedu yacho pie. "Tsono mafuta" anonzi ndiyo dukusa pfungwa wokuRussia, saka West asarudza kuti varove pamusoro yeHydrocarbon pamusika. Sei mafuta akadonhedza? Kare, uwandu ayo kugadzirwa uye mitengo vakanga nokudzorwa sangano chairo - weOPEC. Zvisinei, vaviri makore apfuura, kwegadziriro "wakaputsika." Saudi Arabia uye United States zvinoshamisa kwakawedzera dzavo kugadzirwa mavhoriyamu, kudiwa rakura. Vavariro iri nyore - kuti andobata pamusika nokubatsirwa marara. Around iyoyi, matambudziko akatanga emari China uye Ukraine, izvo zvakaita kuti kuderedza kudiwa. Zvino mhinduro yomubvunzo wokuti kana mafuta mutengo vachamuka, akawedzera:

1. Kana nyika yose weOPEC, pachavo, achiziva kuti kuwa muna chinokosha mitengo ikarova vose.
2. Apo pose upfumi uchaenda kuwedzera (pane tariro kunyanya China).

unganidza mubhechi

On mutengo mafuta sei zvavaitarisira. mbishi zvinhu zvose nomunyika Stock Exchange, uye sezvo nyanzvi vanodavira Pricing iri kuzviitira chaizvo. Kana iwe pakarepo kupfuura makuhwa kuti Saudi Arabia achasarudza kudimbura kugadzirwa, uye kana musika vatambi zvitende, Vachabva vatanga achitenga yakawanda mafuta tariro dzakakwirira mitengo. Nokuda ichi artificially akasika vakarayira uye mutengo chaizvoizvo anotanga kukura. Asi kana vatambi achava nechokwadi chokuti zvinhu asingakanganisi kuvandudza, vangadai havadi pangozi uye kuderedza kutenga mbishi zvinhu. Sezvaunogona kuona, "IFS" vakawanda kutaura kuti mafuta vachamuka mutengo, izvo mutengo for vanofanira kufunga kukuru siyana.

Zvakawanikwa itsva

Science, zvakare, unogona kutaura kana mafuta mutengo ichamuka. Masayendisiti kunyange kusvika tabvumirana pamusoro chii dzayo reserves panyika! Zvisinei, kuramba kuuya nhau pamusoro nzira simba kukura: zvinowanzoshandiswa mhepo uye zuva, yakatanga pezvakaitwa kubereka peturu kubva mafuta, uye magetsi - kubva decomposing marara. Nepo padanho kukura ruzivo izvi zviri pasi, vanokwanisa kupa hapana kupfuura 20-30% yenyika simba zvinodiwa, asi ongororo yesayenzi havana kurega. Kana masayendisiti achaita budiriro, uye kana ndichanamatirisa zvisingaiti kutaura.

Hatifaniri kukanganwa pamusoro simba renyukireya. Muna 2010, zvakanga vakarasikirwa nzvimbo yayo simba, asi munyika guru kuvaka renyukireya simba zvinomera zviri kuramba kukwanisa kupa zvizhinji kokupata simba. Izvi hazvisi chaizvo, nokuti simba renyukireya riri ngozi chaizvo, asi basa kuwana sarudzo muduku ngozi vari kuitwa dzose.

Chii kutarisira kubva mapurezidhendi

Unogona kuwana zvakasiyana-siyana nyanzvi mafungiro, asi chaizvoizvo hapana munhu anogona kunyatsotaura kana mafuta mutengo ichamuka. Vakawanda vaiti kuti muna 2016, mutengo wayo vachamuka kusvika 100, kana kunyange kusvika $ 150, asi zvikazooneka zvakasiyana. zvematongerwo enyika World nhasi ndechokungoti nezvimwewo. A muenzaniso nyore: Kana zvirango pamusoro Russia, avo nyanzvi chete vanoti upfumi munyika vaizoshayawo vakanga hwakatangwa. Asi zvinhu zvakaitika zvakasiyana: Europe wakatambudzika zvakawanda, sezvo huwandu kunze kwenyika ayo vakaurawa. Nokuti Russia, zvirango vava nhangaruvanze zvoupfumi kukura. Nhasi tiri kupupurira kuziva kuchinja vatorwa uye mudzimba mitemo munyika dzakawanda. Muna US uye Europe chaizvoizvo pane hondo pakati vachiravana maviri: mune co-kushanda pamwe Russia uye pavanotaurirana naye. Magumisiro hondo iyi ichava pachena kana mafuta mutengo ichamuka.

Dambudziko kusingaperi kuMiddle East

In kufanana nhau, yeUnited migero vava kashoma kunzwa pamusoro ezvinhu Iran, riri chaizvo chinoshamisa nokuda upfumi hwayo inobvawo pane kana mafuta mutengo ichamuka. Sezvo nyika ino achangobva akasimudza zvirango, ndiko kuti, zvino unogona kudira mafuta pamusoro pamusika. Chokwadi, indasitiri kupora kutora nguva, pamwe hazvisi chii nzvimbo vachatitaka Iran yakajeka. Ukuwo - zviri zvishoma nezvishoma asi zvirokwazvo kuvandudzika ezvinhu muSiriya. Zvinozivikanwa kuti magandanga ari kushingaira vanotengesa pamwe pakugadzira zvinhu, yekudyidzana vakarerutsa mutengo kuti, sezvo basa iri pamutemo. Kunopiwa kuti Iran achasarudza kutsigira Russian uye vakarambidza sangano LIH raparadzwa, zvinganzi kuti nguva mafuta mutengo achamuka $ 80, sezvakanga vhuu.

Policy Russia

Zvinofanira kucherechedzwa kuti Western kuedza kwakawanda kuti kuderedze Russia vakadonha nokuda kuverenga unhu Hurumende Russian. Maererano mbishi zvinhu mitengo kuwa, takawana Misika itsva, hatina yekudyidzana hwakavandudzika ukama nyika vokuMabvazuva, uye vamwe, kunyange asiri inokosha nyika dzokuEurope. Mubatanidzwa yenyika Asian, yaisanganisira Russia, zvishoma nezvishoma asi zvishoma nezvishoma akasimbisa, uye zvichida munguva pfupi zvichaita kupikisa West. In richienda nyika yedu wokuti anochinja zvakare, asi ivo vari vashoma. Pane wandei kukura mune zvokurima, basa riri kuitwa kuti atsigire Entrepreneurship, asi zvinokosha mubhizimisi iri rinorema bhizimisi uye mafuta achinatsa, izvo zvaizoita Unoparadza yakawanda mbishi zvinhu haina kuchengetwa. Kunyange zvakadaro, musi wose, upfumi Russian anova yakatsiga zvikuru, izvo achatungamirira, kana kwete kuwedzera yeHydrocarbon mitengo, ipapo dzinenge kuderedza kuvimba navo.

Edza kufungidzira

Zvaunofanira kuita mitengo mafuta vakawedzera? Hongu, chete mberi kosi vakaisa nhasi. Zvimwe tinogona kutaura kuti kana nyika dzokumadokero regai kushandisa zvimwe zvisarudzo zvisingatarisirwi hwokuzvikuvadza, mutengo mafuta acharamba kukura, kunyange asina mukuru prices. Nditongerei woga:

1. upfumi Saudi Arabia chiri yekudyidzana sei yokuraswa kwemarara mutengo.
2. Iran neSiriya, vanogona kuva kudivi Russia, sepakutanga West akavatungamirira kusviba.
3. nyika dzokuEurope dziri kutsvaka nzira kukurira matambudziko uye kuvaka upfumi.
4. China agara inozivikanwa kwayo "zvishamiso kwoupfumi", pamwe iye akabvisa rairambidzwa pakazvarwa vana. It angatarisirwa kuti kukura vakawanda, kana kumutsa upfumi munyika, zvino zvinenge regai kubatwa kunyange yakaderera.
5. Extraction mafuta shale kwagara munhu dubious kambani iri USA, uye isu tiri kuona nhasi, sezvo ayo mwero Falls.
6. Asian nyika ndatanga rinoita pamwe uye kutsvaka nzira kugarwa pasina kushandisa dhora.
7. The Russian upfumi vave reorientation, kunyange vachiri simba, chiedza bhizimisi uye kurima.
8. Alternative simba apo vasingakwanisi kusangana zvakazara zvinodiwa munyika indasitiri.

Asi, zvichida, asina kufunga zvokuita kuti mafuta vakakwira, uye sei kubvisa mashoko "tsono mafuta". Chero Zvaifungidzirwa uye mutengo pakugadzira zvinhu, kuvimba nguva dzose zvichaita kuti upfumi hwedu simba nevasina, saka chinhu chikuru nhasi - kwete mafuta, uye zvose-kumativi kukura bhizimisi uye waibudirira.