Iran: Mafuta uye upfumi

Zvisarudzo zvinoitwa Iran iri Pashure yacho Kusayiniranwa renyukireya kuti kunotoreva kuti kuongororazve US mutemo kwete chete kuti nyika ino asi kune nharaunda yose.

Muuraye shiri mbiri nedombo rimwe

Iran kuti zano rinonyatsotarira pakati nepakati:

• zvemukati zvinangwa kutsigira zvoupfumi kukura pamwe Kuchengetedzwa mitemo framework;
• zvekunze zvebasa tiine yakanaka emunharaunda panzvimbo.

Kana vasati nezvinangwa aya kubudirira inobvuma kwemari kubva kutengeswa simba uye zvechitendero, asi nhasi, kana kubvuma kuti Iran Ichafashamira nyika namafuta, hachina, kukonana pakati zvinangwa izvi zvichava hakudzivisiki. Kufungisisa itsva constraints zvoupfumi, pasinei vaizoitwazve zvirango, hombe chikuru vechiIslam Republic pamusoro pezviri kukura nokufamba kwenguva kusimbisa nzvimbo National upfumi nenzira achava inowirirana nzira zvainanga pamwe pane kunetsana kuMiddle East.

Kushungurudzwa remunharaunda zvakaisvonaka, Ukuwo, kwaizova zvakunobatsira, sezvo achaita va neudhadha kushandisa mari. Muchiitiko ichi, kuwedzera kudzamisa zvemukati enyika vamapoka Iran, kunoda nouchapupu amboshandurirwa hwevakuru vatambi veko uyewo United States itsika. Action, kukuvadza nyika kusimbisa upfumi zvinogona kukura, pane kutsvaka rinodhura inokosha nani muMiddle East, zvichava chaizvo vazhinji Iranians, uye kuti tidzikamiswe mudunhu.

pashure zvirango

upfumi Iran kuti ari panguva yokuchinja. With kuchinja dzakawanda ezvinhu uye mafuta pose tarisiro munyika vachafanira kusarudza zvakaoma. Vaizoitwazve zvirango pashure kusaina chibvumirano renyukireya rine zvinogona kuwedzera nokumutswa. Matanho akatorwa mumakore mashoma apfuura, zvakabatsira kuti dzine mitengo, kuderedza dzinopiwa uye kuti vabudirire Gengi kugadzikana uye kunyange kukura.

Kunyange zvakadaro, upfumi anoramba simba. Urovha, kunyanya pakati pevechiduku, anoramba ari mukuru pamwero. Tarisiro nokuti gore kuitika zviri nani mune chiedza simba constraints mari pashure nokubudiswa guru wokumwe vanochinjanwa reserves, kwakawedzera oiri, uyewo kuwedzera chivimbo pamisika, iyo inosvitsa kuwedzera mari. The mamiriro ezvemari munyika anowanzovimbwa mberi kusimbiswa kana vakaronga matanho kuwedzera kwemari, kusanganisira VAT vowanda, abolition pakati vasabatanidzwe mitero uye maronda mu dzinopiwa vachange chinozoiswa, iyo, pamwe dzakakwirira mumhuri kugadzirwa uye kupinzwa, unogona zvakare kuderedza mitengo .

Kwakaomarara ezvinhu anotarisana Iran: mafuta nhasi plummets mutengo. Izvi akabatanidza maererano nezvaidiwa refu uye anodhura upfumi ndimutsidzire mbudo pamusoro dosanktsionny kugadzirwa pamwero mamiriyoni 4 emiti pazuva uye kuwedzera mudzimba kudiwa. Nepo kuwedzera oiri muna Iran uye anoenderana mubhizimisi kuchakubatsira kuwedzera GDP, nechepazasi ekisipoti mitengo vanogona zinyekenyeke kwokunze nzvimbo uye bhajeti. Dzisina tarisiro chero zvahunoreva chibvumirano kudzora zvokudya vagadziri zvikuru, nefuma mafuta kunogona 30% kudzika inotevera 3-4 Makore pane ramangwana riri kubvuma ane simba kupora muna 2016. Uyezve, kuunganidza vatorwa vanochinjanwa reserves, izvo vaizoshumira airbag nokuti isingazivikanwi ramangwana, zvichava kunyora nezvavo. Muchiitiko chino, hapana nzvimbo kuramba expansionary policies kuwedzera kukura. Saka, mamwe kuvandudzika vakuru njodzi.

constraints

Panguva iyoyowo, upfumi Iran iri kuvaremedza zvikuru STRUCTURAL kururama kuti tirambe kumumanikidza ayo kukura kushurudzira. Critical mitengo, kusanganisira Exchange uye mubereko rates, haasati adzoka dzose; vakaremerwa huru zvemari chikamu NPLs; private kwemauto anotarisana simba vade uye rwakakwana chikwereti Kuwanikwa; State chikwereti yakawedzera uye dzinopiwa kuramba kumusoro. Vanotongwa paruzhinji kwemauto kudzora rinokosha hwenyika uye kuwana kumabhanga. private kwemauto utungamiriri uye bhizimisi zvakatipoteredza kukwana uye dzisiri yakajeka, iyo kurerutsa private inivhesitimendi. Nokusimbaradza remunharaunda kusagadzikana, uyewo chokwadi pamusoro Implementation yesungano renyukireya mberi kunowedzera ngozi.

Kukoshesa: zvemukati pamusoro zvenharaunda

Mupfungwa yakakura, Iran anotsvaka mhanyisa zvoupfumi kukura mukati aivapo gwara kuumbwa, apo kusimbisa vemo panzvimbo. Zvisinei, The enyika vepamusoro munyika, rakakamurwa mapoka maviri. Mumwe wavo chinomirirwa vanochinja uye technocratic nehurumende President Rouhani, kukoshesa zvoupfumi kukura. Saka, zviri nyore kutsvaka kwematunhu inokosha pachiyero uye pedyo pamwe kunze mauto nokuda kwayo chirongwa zvoupfumi. Kana hurumende yakasarudza kuita mazvake hwenyika kuburikidza paupamhi-siyana zvinhu, uyewo kuderedza basa va neudhadha yavose kwemauto, pamusoro womukati kukura kosi chinowanzoitika zvikunde avo nyasha.

The simba yechipiri chinomiririrwa vatsigiri zvakaoma-mutsetse kutonga vafundisi uye kwechiIslam Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC), uyo rwaizoda kuramba magetsi ezvoupfumi mamiriro, sezvo zvavanazvo chinokosha mugove upfumi.

Vaiomerera pamusoro vanochinja

Kana mamwe zvinhu vanotumirwa kune voruzhinji kwemauto masangano, uyewo mune zvimwewo pfungwa IRGC uye nevafundisi, iri kuramba nemamiriro upfumi, kukura mwero kuchaita-chinja pachapera ashingaire chaizvo. Mauto aya icharega yavo inokosha pakuita National zvoupfumi uye ayo chinokosha kukanganisa Iran gwara, nokudaro zvichiita kuti dzika kwematunhu uye vatorwa mutemo tichiregeredza mudzimba zvoupfumi. chinzvimbo ichi ndichakupai pave zvimwe kusagadzikana munzvimbo pasina kuwedzera zvinakire nyika.

Zvakakosha kuziva kuti kujeka kana magetsi Kutarisirwa Rouhani, uyo akauya simba nechinangwa liberalizing upfumi, vanokwanisa yakakwana kuita zvakakodzera kuchinja kukuru. Iye chaizvo ari ichangopfuura musarudzo, asi atarisana simba midzi zvido uye hardliners. Wakati kwave kubudirira dzine:

• mari musika Kudzikamiswa,
• kuderedza zvimwe map,
• mitengo.

Asi mutungamiri wenyika vave kuomerwa nezvinhu nedanho kumhanyisa. Nokuti zviremera zvakakosha kuva nzvimbo nokuda kukwidziridzwa, iyo ichapa rutsigiro voruzhinji kuenderera mberi zvinhu. International kusimudzirwa uye kufurirwa aigona kuva kunokosha.

Iran, mafuta uye zvematongerwo enyika

In magazini ezvinhu, zviremera chingatsvakwa yakafara nzira nhatu:

1) Kuramba Nezvagara Zviripo.

2) Implementation pamusoro zvikuru uye coherent kuchinja.

3) Patinoita mwero mune zvematongerwo enyika kuchinja.

Wechitatu Ipfungwa achava asanyanya vamwe kurambidzwa private kwemauto mari uye fiscal nenzvimbo mumamiriro ezvinhu umo Iran anotengesa mafuta panguva yakaderera goho, asi kusiya zvoupfumi uye enyika marongerwo yose kuchinja.

Kuramba Nezvagara Zviripo kuchaita vaunze iri kuwedzera kukura kusvika 4-4.5% muna 2016-2017. kubva zvinenge razero muna 2015-2016, kana mamwe zvinhu zvinoshandiswa kuderedza dhefisiti, kuripwa kunoshamisa wazvipira uye kushanda yakaturikwa zvaMambo nevoruzhinji zvekutepfenyura. Zvisinei, mumamiriro ezvinhu umo mafuta huwandu ipfupi, kuwedzera anononoka pfupi uye svikiro izwi kune pamwero iyo kuchawedzera kukura urovha. Constant womukati kuwana simba rezvematongerwe enyika kuchaita govera zvinhu vabatsirwe zvinangwa inokosha romunharaunda tichiregeredza yomunyika zvoupfumi, uye izvi vachava nemigumisiro yakaipa kuti kukura.

Mutemo zvinhu

Maererano pachake hombe-pamwero zvinhu wechipiri, mazvake hwenyika uye mangwanani nokururamiswa STRUCTURAL kururama kwaizounza inogona kuenderera kukura, kunyange repasi pane-kutarisirwa chinobva kutengeswa simba, ane simba achamuka svikiro uye kwenguva refu. budiriro guru kwakadaro kuchawedzera zvingakwanisa ngozi Kutarisira nezvakaonekwa Iran. Oil akava isingadhuri, uye mutengo wawo - zvishoma yakatsiga. Kubudirira nzira iyi achavaponesa iya iri enyika womukati nengaidzo simba kubva vatsigiri murayiro upfumi veruzhinji nemauto pamusika vaifarira shareholders. Zvakaitika zvinoratidza kuti kwenguva refu kuona kumusika, pacharo, kunobatsira kuti kusika zvakakodzera kusuduruka.

The Muchiitiko wechitatu, kunyange mune zvematongerwo muduku dzinoparadza, kurumidzai muende wokutanga kuzvipedza. Matanho kugadzirisa zvakarurama enyika nyaya dzakadai bhajeti nenzvimbo iri mari shoma mamiriro uye kwakaderera pakati zvipingamupinyi panyaya private kwemauto basa anogona vanomboenda kudzikamisa Kusagutsikana mamiriro zvipfuwo upfumi. Nechokwadi uye ikawanda makwikwi simba rezvematongerwo enyika, izvo huchachinja kuparadzirwa zveminda mafuta, vachava zvakunokanganisa.

Iran: mafuta uye vanoita vatorwa

Kana Iran achamira pamusoro wokutanga shanduro mutemo, kuti US vachafanira kupa mashoko zvakajeka kuti achapiwa remunharaunda kurwisa akasimba kurwisa kubva US nekudunhu naye. Uyezve, kana vatambi guru vachamanikidzwa kubva rakananga mubhizimisi mumafuta zvekutepfenyura munyika, zvinogona kubatsira kuti abvume zviremera kushandura ayo mazano ane akakodzera pachinhu epamba nezvinetso zvemari uye kuramba ari pakati nepakati dzimwe nehurumende.

Kuti akurudzire Iran rechipiri musiyano wezvinyorwa, United States, uye masangano dzakawanda vanofanira kutsigira imwe nzira yakadaro. Pamwe nedzimwe nyika kwekurasira mafuta-yakavakidzana ichapa mudanga uye musoro nyika mutengo mafuta, kuti umutse chinyakare pakudyidzana, kubatsira kutumira Islamic Republic kuitisa yokumwe wokuti remunharaunda co-kushanda uye kushandira pamwe. Kuwedzera kudyidzana pamwe kumusika nyika uye kuwedzera inflow vemamwe guta kuchawedzera Iran vanorarama zvishoma kusakakavadzana mutemo panguva yomunharaunda vanochiva nokudaro kuita kuti kutsiga nharaunda.

Kana rechitatu musiyano wezvinyorwa yeko uye pose wekuongorora vanogona danho kusunda hurumende kuti enyika zvikuru kushingaira chinzvimbo. Kunyanya, kwakaderera dzaishandiswa kurambidzwa uye mari pamwe haisi mumafuta zvekutepfenyura kungava nokuda pezviri negwaro kuchinja. Imwe nzira kumanikidza musi Iran - kuoma nechando mafuta zvikuru vagadziri kutsigira mitengo - aigona kuva chinokurudzira zvakashinga negwaro kuchinja.

chisarudzo

vatambi vose vaibatanidzwa emunharaunda rinomutsa, vanofarira, kusunda Iran kuti sarudzo iri Muchiitiko chechipiri uye nomufambiro zvakakodzera zvoupfumi policies uye STRUCTURAL kuchinja. Decentralization kuti sarudzo uye kuwedzera basa pamusika zvekuvaka yavaive, pamwe vasanyanye basa veruzhinji nemauto, muri kutsoropodza. Matanho aya achabatsira kuti kukura, kuwedzera basa mikana, uyewo rutsigiro Iran kuti kusangana kupinda kwematunhu uye nyika upfumi. Izvi yatichawana akudziridze zvinogona pamusoro mwero chikamu munzanga akasarudza Rouhani muna 2013 uye akahwina zvichangobva musarudzo dzeparamende.

The chikuru kutengeswa vadyidzani kuUnited States kutsigira vanoita dzakawanda uye multilateral zvikwereti masangano, unogona kuridza pakupfuura ichi rinokosha basa. Nepo dzakawanda masimba uchava gakava pamusoro rezasi pane zvaaitarisira, pfungwa zveminda mafuta, zvimwewo mauto anogona kuchinja vatungamirire hurumende ichiisa mari uye kubatsira hurumende kuzadzisa chinangwa Dual.

An nzvimbo kunodiwa wokumwe mubhizimisi kuramba Iran - mafuta uye yakakwirira Michina kukura mabasa mune dzimwe sectors vaifanira kugadzirisa kukura kwemabasa vakadzidza zvikuru vechidiki. In kufarira dzimwe vanoita kuramba rakakodzera kumusika policies, vaishanda pamwe omunzvimbo vanoita, shoma kuremedzwa nokutaurisa murau kuzvidzora.

pamwe dzakawanda

Multilateral masangano kwoupfumi uye zvemari uye hurumende chikuru investor nyika vanogona kuita basa rinokosha iri kuchinja kwacho. Masangano akadai IMF uye World Bank, anogona uye anofanira kurayira Iranian vakuru pamusoro political zvakakodzera kuchinja. nzvimbo yavo vaigona kuva inokosha zvakwakanakira mukuita private inivhesitimendi zvisarudzo. Nokukurumidza nhengo iri WTO, uyewo kuwana kumisika yose achapedzisa ichitanga upfumi mazvake uye kusangana. mutsetse Strong kushandura romunharaunda inokosha pachiyero zvinoda refu nzira kuchinja kusarudza pamusoro hurumende ichiisa mari uye kuchinja pokutanga kune mumhuri kukura.

At yomunharaunda dhigiri zvido Iran inosanganisira pamwe nemamwe vaburitsi kuitira kudzikamisa zvinhu mumusika mafuta. Pedyo Kufambisa Gwaro pamwe huru simba vaburitsi muGulf haazorambi chete kubatsira kuvandudza upfumi tariro Iran, asi kuti kuderedza kusawirirana mudunhu. Zvakaitika zvisina pamwe Saudi Arabia nedzimwewo vaburitsi zvikuru remunharaunda mafuta Mutemo kuma1990 muenzaniso wakanaka wokutevera.