Chii kuitika Russian mafuta indasitiri? Chinosuwisa uye Inofadza

Oil rudzi mberi, uye umo neimwe vechikamu vanoita maererano zvivanakire. Nyara kuedza kuzadzisa kupindirana nemushonga constraints, yakatanga kufamba muna Doha, akatadza, kunyanya nokuda renunciation pamusoro Saudi Arabia, akavapindurawo, izvo zvakaitika nenzira tariro ezvinhu. Mutengo mafuta zvishoma nezvishoma kuwedzera, nokudaro rokuzadza bhajeti iri Russian Federation, atogadzirira zvinetso zvikuru maererano zvikuru tariro kushurudzira. Chii kutarisira inotevera? Nhasi anonzwa migodhi indasitiri, ine inokosha kukosha nokuda National upfumi? Izvi zvinogona kutongwa chete pamusoro ndezvipi nenyanzvi vanonyatsokwanisa - vazhinji Data nezvikonzero pachena havana pachena.

Mamiriro ezvinhu America

US mafuta kugadzirwa maindasitiri zvishoma mitengo iri kusangana nematambudziko akakura. Decline munyika mitengo zvakaita kuti vasanyanye profitability zvose migumisiro yose nemitemo dzezvoupfumi. American vehove pachavo kuti kupendwa pachavo mumusungo, nokusika njodzi oversupply. Pamusangano mari $ 46 mudhiramu anenge ndiye "kubviswa" kubva mafuta shale musika Sub-kwemauto, unyanzvi hwokugadzira kuri kuva maturo, zvisinei, uyewo ine zvimwe zvinobatsira kuti reactivation yangu Zvinotora nguva shoma pane dzekare nzira. Oil Kugadzirwa iri US asvika chinyorwa yepamusoro muna June 2015, apo zuva kubva muura vakanga akaporazve mamiriyoni 9.6. Emiti. Zvino, nhamba iyi vakawira mamiriyoni 8.8. Uye anoramba kusviba. The indasitiri nezvematambudziko akaoma zvikuru anotsiva zvikwereti akatorwa inobva kumusoro Purofiti, izvo havana nhasi.

Mamiriro ari weOPEC

Cartel kubatanidza iri mafuta-nyika Middle East, panguva ino Danho akaratidza ayo pasi kunyatsoshanda. Nemamwe mashoko, chii, kuti hazvisi - hapana musiyano. Huru motokari simba, kuronga locomotive, Saudi Arabia, achiita sokuti hapana weOPEC haako, asi mukuru chigumbuso yaiva nzvimbo Iran mamwe kuwedzera kugadzirwa. Zviri pachena, nyika, naterpevshis kubva kwenguva refu zvirango, anoda kudzikamisa vakarasika purofiti kwemakumi akawanda emakore, mukuwedzera, sezvo achangopfuura akatorwa kunyange mimwe rakawandisa havafaniri kuva kunyanya kukanganisa pamusika.

Saudi nokurasa zvikuru anosarudza zvinenge, kuchititadzisa kukura mitengo, izvo saka kure ichiri hariguti pamwe El-Riyadh, izvo chinodiwa kuti mazwi akanga kupfuura zana, kana bhajeti haagoni kuderedzwa. The aibvuma kuwedzera kugadzirwa apo vaivawo chinokosha zvazvinoita kwete. Tehran muna April akauya pamusoro dosanktsionny zvinyorwa. On wose, hwakachengetedza kusaenzana mune nyasha pfungwa pamusoro musika nyika, asi zvishoma nezvishoma richaparadzwa. Kudiwa ari kuwedzera, uye yakasvika vaifanira makore mashanu, riri pasi huripo pamusika chakaipa, serisina chinogona wapera kupfuura mugwagwa, uye mabasa kuzvidzora mashandiro, uye mutengo zvishoma nezvishoma zvinowedzera.

Russian "Greenfield"

Pari, nokuda yezviri mafuta kugadzirwa muUnited States uye weOPEC Supply yakawedzera mamiriyoni 1.25. Emiti, asi pakazopera 2017 ari kusaenzana iri projected kuramba kusvika mamiriyoni 0,14. Emiti. Panyaya iyi, nzvimbo Russia ndiyo inonakidza. Maererano VYGON Consulting nyanzvi, kurimwa mafuta zvipfuwo iri kukura nokukurumidza, uye mukati kwegore vhoriyamu kwayo kuchasvika mamiriyoni 565. Emiti pazuva, iro unoenderana chinyorwa kunyange munguva Soviet muna 1987. Nokuti reference, mugore uno, chiverengero chiri mamiriyoni 545 The chikuru manyuko nerubatsiro mbishi zvinhu yakatanga kuwana inonzi greenfields (greenfields), kureva kuti, minda achangobva basa .. Izvi imhaka mutero kubatsirwa inopiwa hurumende iri kutanga kwekupwanyiwa kugadzirwa. Mugove "mitema minda" ari wechitatu nhamba. Kana achitsvaka chibvumirano muna Doha, deposits izvi aigona asati ishande. Just zvino akapa ne mabasa matsva namanomwe, zvichiita kuti kuwedzera kugadzirwa nemiriyoni 16.5. Matani pagore ano uye mamiriyoni 17. Matani neinotevera.

The kuderera yokunatsira

Chokwadi chokuti dzimwe zvemaBhaibheri oiri ichakasangana nezvimwewo zvichabviswa aivigirwa, hapana chokwadi. Maererano musoro VYGON Consulting G. Vygon, Ministry of Economic Development ramangwana kunogona kuderera kwemitambo romugove kutengeswa nyika kubudikidza 2.4% (kusvika mamiriyoni 236. Matani) kwakarasika panyaya nekukura kugadzirwa uye kuderera mudzimba kunwa zvibereko cracking walnut. Sales kuti peturu kuti zvidzidzo zvakasiyana-siyana uye Diesel mafuta akakura kwemakore 15, asi vakaurawa 2.3% muna 2015. Saka, pane chikonzero chokutarisira kuti varege kuderedza, uye ari kukura kunze kwenyika matani mamiriyoni 13. Gore rino, kubva nemaonero usapinde richizadza bhajeti zvakanaka. Chikonzero ichi zviripachena, vokuRussia akatanga kudzingira zvishoma uye kutenga motokari (iyo, chokwadi, iri zvakaipa). Somuenzaniso, muna 2008 vagari awana mamiriyoni 3 michina, kunyange kupfuura muGermany, sezvo kare, 2015 m, chete mamiriyoni 1,2. Saizvozvowo, mafuta uye vanhu vakatengwa zvishoma.

Igaroziva mamiriro pamutengo peturu munyika

Nokuti ekisipoti havazodyari chete mafuta zvakawandisa, uye zvibereko. Munyaya ino uye gore rakatevera mamwe kugona kuti kugadzirwa peturu achaurawa kushanda, uye vose pachisara iri aiendeswa pamusika wokumwe. Inzwi rayo kuchasvika zvinofungidzirwa 9.1 mln. matani, inova yakanaka kuitika, sezvo akawedzera mutengo iri yepamusoro zvikuru pane iyi kupfuura kutengeswa mbishi zvinhu. Zvisinei, kutarisira vasanyanye chitoro mutengo vatyairi Russian, zvinosuwisa, hazvina zvakafanira, kana munhu ity pakati 92-ndipo muna 2014 arasikirwe avhareji 31 rubles. kopecks 40, nepo mune rokutanga chikamu gore rino -. 34 rubles. 10 kopecks. Kuti unzwisise chikonzero maitiro kwakadaro peturu vanofanira yakawanda yokunyatsoongorora zvinhu zvayo Pricing, naro kukanganisa zvikuru excise mutero (muna 2015 zvakanzi akaderedzwa), akatorwa mafuta uye kuderedza (mu chete 2015, zvakanga "akawedzera 6 rubles. 80 kopecks. Per fő ), nokuti imwe huni anogona kutengeswa nokuda madhora kana euros.

Zvimwe zvinoita kupesvedzera risingafadzi

Nengaidzo pakati zvitengeswa uye kudiwa zvishoma nezvishoma zvichienderana namafuta munyika, pasinei Iranian "kurwisa" uye Saudi marara. kuita zvinhu kuvhiringidza musika supersaturation mu negwara, zvinosuwisa, kazhinji zvinoitika chaizvo uye kunyange zvaisiririsa. In Iraq, magandanga rakavhuvhuta mafuta Mapaipi, ipapo chetezvo zvakaitika muColombia, Kuwait muCanada wavanozvisunga varedzi dondo moto yakaitika chete ipapo, apo pane hove. Zvose izvi akaderedza chikumbiro.

Chiizve unochinja nechiyero?

Kudiwa yakawedzera, kukura kwayo semutongo 1.4 mln. Emiti pazuva, uye zvachose vhoriyamu yakasvika mamiriyoni 95,9. Bbl., Uye zvose zviri rokutanga kota kwegore rino. Huru vatengi vaiva China, India uye Russia. refu kuparadzwa kwakadaro kwakanga zvisingatarisirwi kuti musika. Panguva iyoyowo, Saudi Arabia haana akazadzisa ayo kutyisidzira, ayo kugadzirwa vhoriyamu nezuva raiva 10, 2 miriyoni. Emiti. Sezvo unhu uye navamwe weOPEC, kunze Iran, Chokwadi. Just havanzwisisi sei muna Doha saka akazorora. Asi chinonyanya kukosha mugumisiro wacho zvinoderedza mutengo - ndiwo kuderera mukurima munyika umo kubudisa mari vari kumusoro, maererano IEA for, vachakwanisa kupa zviuru chete 800 emiti .. pazuva.

tarisiro

The Department of Energy yakabudisa mushumo May 12, maererano izvo mutengo mafuta kusvikira 2040 aigona kukura kusvika 252 emadhora muzana dhiramu. Zvisinei, akabvumira vamwe apa, zvichienderana nemamiriro ezvinhu akasiyana-siyana, unonzi nhamba $ 76 (kunaka akanaka) kana $ 141 (avhareji-chaizvoizvo). Zvisinei, chii chichaitika munguva kota zana, zvakaoma mutongi, uyewo pamusoro chii chichava pakazotanga chaiye rokutenga nesimba US mari. Kana pfupi (makore maviri), pane chikonzero kuti tariro nokuda kwomutengo 70-75 emadhora ane pasi mukana yekuwana chiratidzo chacho 100. The Russian nebere mitengo iwayo, asi vakwikwidzi aro pachena kwete zvose richapona.