Avhareji wepagore kwevanhu. kukarukureta fomura

Statistics anobatsira vatsvakurudzi kuongorora pezvakaitwa kuti kuitika munyika. Various zvingakonzera kuti dzikarongwa, ichienzaniswa nedzimwe mhando zvakafanana. Vanhu uye pezvakaitwa mumagakava bhora, isu anoongorora nhamba zvikuru kunyatsoongorora. Handiti, zvinoratidza pamusoro munyika yose, pane wevanotungamirira mamiriro ezvinhu.

Avhareji nhamba yevanhu wepagore rinobatanidzwa muzvidzidzo mune zveupfumi panguva makro chechetere. Saka, chikamu chinokosha ichi Data kuramba kuongorora kuti recalculated. Kukosha chinoratidza, uyewo nzira ongororo dzinokurukurwa munyaya.

uwandu hwevanhu

Kuti kukwanisa kuona avhareji yegore negore vanhu muguta, nharaunda kana nyika, zvinokosha kunzwisisa musimboti nyaya pakutsvakurudza. The wevanotungamirira mamiriro anogona kuonekwa akasiyana pamakona.

Population akataura yose nhamba yevanhu vanogara mukati miganhu imwe ndima. Nokuti Kuongorora wevanotungamirira ezvinhu, nhamba iri munyaya akapoteredza rwokuzvarwa kubereka (wembereko uye kufa) uye kutama. Uyewo amutsvaka nemamiriro chavagari (zera, bonde, upfumi uye zvinzvimbo, uye zvichingodaro. D.). Sezvo Demographics date anoratidza sei vanosiyana-siyana Resettlement vanhu mundima.

Vagari nhamba vakadzidza kushandisa mukuru uye Nzira dzinoshandiswa. Izvi zvinobvumira kuti uzadzise, yakadzika ndezvipi pamusoro pokumuka wevanotungamirira zviratidzo.

Minda ongororo

Avhareji wepagore vakawanda zvinofungidzirwa kushandisa dzakasiyana hunhu mapoka zvichienderana nechinangwa ongororo. Wevanotungamirira mufananidzo kwakasimbiswa nguva iri zvakananga mundima anogona munyaya yacho simba pamusoro zvachose kwevanhu.

Kuti tinzwisise nei paine vamwe kuchinja, zvinokosha kuongorora kwomuzvarirwo kwevanhu kuti tama. Nokuti chinangwa ichi, kuti kuongorora kuMudzidzisi Data unobatanidzwa. Kuti tive mufananidzo wakakwana kubva muzvikwata zvisina tsarukano chavagari, paumbwe uwandu vanhu, ivo dzinoiswa maererano mamwe maitiro.

Somuenzaniso, ongororo inoratidza sei mune imwe nzvimbo iri musha varume nevakadzi, zera zvavari, kuti vanhu vazhinji anobatwa zera vemo ane kare kuita soro nenhanho dzidzo.

kukarukureta fomura

Kuti kutendeuka chavagari, Masvomhu siyana anechekuita. Asi dzimwe nguva yakaoma kukarukureta Data Church wandei nguva zvikamu. Kana uine ruzivo pakutanga uye pakuguma kwenguva, paavhareji pagore vagari (payakavakirwa) riri sezvinotevera:

ChNsred. = (+ ChNn.p. ChNk.p.) / 2, apo ChNsred. - avhareji nhamba yevanhu ChNn.p. - nhamba yevanhu pakutanga kwenguva ChNk.p. - uwandu pakupera kwenguva.

Kana nhamba aunganidzwa romwedzi mumwe nomumwe ari kudzidza nguva, kuti nzira yaizova:

ChNsred. = (+ 0,5CHN1 CHN2 ... + NNP-1 0,5ChNp) (n-1), apo CHN1, CHN2 ... NNP-1 - nhamba yevanhu pakutanga romwedzi, N - inoverengeka.

Data ongororo

Avhareji wepagore vakawanda, asi nzira iyo yave kukurukurwa apa, rinobvisa kuti ngaaverenge nhamba mashoko. Zvakakodzera ngaaverenge nhamba zvachose kwevanhu vapenyu mundima ino (PN). Hunosanganisira uwandu vanhu chaizvoizvo kurarama kudzidza nzvimbo (NN).

Kuwedzera mufananidzo uyu, nokuti kudzidza wevanotungamirira ezvinhu munyika kufungisisa chikamu kwenguva achigara vagari (EP). Uyewo kwenguva ndisipo vanhu (IN) tora mugove kangani. ichi chiyero chete kubvisa yaipedzerwa. The yemaitiro of mugari ndimo sezvinotevera:

PN = NN + VP - IN.

Kusiyanisa pakati chinoratidza uye? Lv VP, kufungawo penguva 6 mwedzi nguva. Kana boka revanhu kurarama kudzidza nzvimbo mwedzi anopfuura matanhatu, ivo dzinoiswa mune mari uye isingasviki pahafu gore - kuti kwenguva pfupi vakawanda.

Vagari kuverengwa kwevanhu

Avhareji Nhamba zvachose kwevanhu wepagore rinowanikwa yakavakirwa umboo kubva okuverengwa. Asi izvi zvinoda chinokosha mubhizimisi nguva, kushanda nesimba uye mari. Naizvozvo, kuti vaite Verenga ose mwedzi kana kunyange gore hazvibviri.

Naizvozvo, zvikamu pakati recalculation nhamba yevanhu vari imwe nzvimbo kushandisa kwegadziriro musoro Masvomhu. Unganidza Statistical mashoko pamusoro pakuzvarwa uye rufu rates, vaitamira runoyerera. Asi nokufamba kwenguva, izvozvo rinoungana mumwe kukanganisa ari nenhamba.

Naizvozvo, kuti zvakarurama kuona avhareji vakawanda vachiri kunodiwa kuti kuitisa nguva nenguva vaverengwe.

Application date ongororo

The kukarukureta of avhareji vakawanda chiri kuitwa kuti zvimwe kudzidza wevanotungamirira kwendangariro. The kuongorora mugumisiro rinoshandiswa pakuverenga vanourayiswa uye wokubereka, dzinongoitika kubereka. Vari akaverenga mune chekawo mumwe zera boka.

Uyewo, avhareji nhamba inobatsira mu kupima uwandu akagwinya uye mune zvoupfumi kushingaira kwevanhu. Izvi zvinogona kunzi boka revanhu vakanga vasara kana akasvika munharaunda yacho kana nharaunda kuburikidza yokutama. Izvi zvinoita kuti tikwanise kuongorora zvingakwanisa kushanda dzichiitika pano.

Kuparadzirwa zvakakodzera kushanda kunoita kuti zvoupfumi. Naizvozvo, kukosha Anoverenga vanhu zvakaoma kuona.

inokosha

Avhareji wepagore vakawanda, dzemaitirwe payakavakirwa rakanga zvakurukurwa kumusoro, rinobatanidzwa kunyatsoongorora Demographics siyana. Mumwe wavo anova chaiwo kufamba kwevanhu. Zviri nokuda dzinongoitika dzinotsanagura pakuzvarwa uye rufu.

Mugore avhareji nhamba yevanhu kunowedzera uwandu vana vachangoberekwa uye kwakaderedza nhamba yevanhu vakafa. Zviri muropa muupenyu. Hama kuti paavhareji nhamba vemo zvinhu rwokuzvarwa kufamba. Kana kuberekwa mwero akapfuudza rufu zvazvingava, kuwedzera akacherechedza (ndiEzekieri).

Uyewo, kana kuita kuongorora zvakadaro rinoitwa vokuparidzira akoromoka nokuchembera mhando. Saka tsunga aiva mukuru kufa vari boka. Izvi zvinobvumira kuti kugumisa kuti mureza kurarama kudzidza nzvimbo, magariro kudzivirira vagari.

vaitamira

Change chokukomborerwa nhamba vagari haisi chete nokuda dzinongoitika kwendangariro. Vanhu vanoenda kubasa kana nekusiyana, vanouya nechinangwa basa. Kana vanotama izvi ndisipo kana chinhu kuti vanopfuura 6 mwedzi, zvirokwazvo kufunga iri kuongorora.

Rinokosha vaitamira Rwako chokuita upfumi. The basa musika anochinja sezvinoita kunodzikira, uye nokuwedzera kwenhamba akagwinya vanhu.

Avhareji wepagore vagari rubatsiro kuwana zvose kukura mwero uye kuderedza basa romugove mudunhu. Kana wo guru aibuda vatama kuuya kunyika, kuchawedzera urovha. Kuderedza uwandu nokushanda vemo kunotungamirira bhajeti dhefisiti zvinoderedza pensions, mubairo vanachiremba, vadzidzisi uye zvichingodaro. D. Naizvozvo, kudzora dzinotama kufamba vo kudiwa chiyero kumiririrwa.

upfumi basa

Kuwedzera kuchinja kwazvo vomuSouth kana nharaunda, iva nechokwadi kuti tiite STRUCTURAL kuongorora. Kazhinji, mari pamwero, pane mapoka matatu vemo.

Avhareji yegore negore nhamba kuti zvemari vanoshingaira vakawanda runoita kufungidzira kuti rokutenga simba vanhu, mararamire avo. Munyika dzakabudirira, chikamu chikuru vanhu rinoumbwa nevanhu avhareji mari. Vanogona kuwana zvakafanira zvekudya nguva nenguva kuti vatenge makuru, kufamba.

Munyika idzi mune chidukuduku chikamu vapfumi nevarombo. Kana nhamba vagari vane mari shoma inowedzera zvinokosha, mutoro guru zvemari weveta bhajeti. Izvi zvinoderedza zvinonyatsorehwa nemararamiro.

Mapoka ose ari zvemari kushingaira vanogara vari muchimiro coefficients panyaya avhareji yevagari.

fungidziro tafura

Kuti uone avhareji yegore negore nhamba yevanhu pasina vanhu vaverengwe, iyo nzira kuvakwa mukana pamatafura. Chokwadi chokuti vazhinji wevanotungamirira pezvakaitwa zvinogona zvafanotaurwa pachine. It chokuita Zvinokosha.

Netafura Rinoshandisa mhosva dzakawanda. Natural kufamba ndiko kusingarapiki, nekuti haugoni kufa uye kuberekwa kaviri. Chete kamwe anogona kubereka mwana wake wokutanga. Mumwe maitikiro vanofanira kufunga. Somuenzaniso, unogona kupinda muwanano yechipiri, kana pakutanga pamutemo.

Vagari rakakamurwa kuva zera mapoka. Nokuti mumwe nomumwe wavo, kubva ndingangokuvara panowanikwa imwe chiitiko rakasiyana. Uyezve aongorora nhamba yevanhu kuva woga.

Nokufamba kwenguva, vanhu vane imwe mukana zvinofamba neimwe boka. Sezvo kushurudzira anoitwa. Somuenzaniso, ndiye chikamu kwevanhu kuti Akura kushanda, vachaparadzwa pamudyandigere. Naizvozvo, vaongorori anogona kufanotaura kuti vanhu vazhinji vachabatana inotevera boka.

urongwa

Kuronga panguva makro pamwero hakungagoni pasina Statistical mashoko akaita. Avhareji wepagore uwandu vanoshingaira vakawanda inocherechedzwa nhoroondo iri kudzidza nemararamiro, kutenga simba, uyewo kukura huru zvoupfumi gwaro munyika (the bhajeti).

Huwandu zvayo mari uye zvekushandisa hazvigoni zvafanotaurwa pasina kufungisisa nhamba uye maumbirwo vagari munyika. The vanhu vanoshanda mumunda asiri bhajeti, dzakanga pachiyero yavanotambira, chikuru chichaitwa kudira kupinda bhajeti mari.

Kana vaongorori kuona kuderera chiyamuro Hova mune ramangwana, zvinokosha kutanga matanho kugadzirisa mamiriro ezvinhu. Mumwe mamiriro ane yayo wevanotungamirira chikwata upfumi chidhiraivho. Kuumba mabasa matsva, achipedza vanokwanisa evanhu mutemo, kukwidza mitemo pakurarama, zvinokwanisika kuti nyika ibudirire.

Analysis uye kuronga pamusoro wevanotungamirira ezvinhu ane fanira kushandisa avhareji yegore negore kwouwandu hwevanhu rates, uyewo mamwe STRUCTURAL zvinhu. Naizvozvo, kuti yakarurama pamusoro date muunganidzwa uye kudzidza adequacy wenyika nyika bhajeti kuronga kunoenderana.

Kuva vaitirei chinhu chakadai avhareji nhamba yevanhu vanogona kunzwisisa kukosha chinoratidza izvi macroeconomic kuongorora uye kuronga. Vakawanda nezvakafanotaurwa ramangwana nyika, nharaunda kana guta akavaka pashure yakafanira muunganidzwa uye kubudiswa akakodzera mashoko. Uyu inodiwa danho panguva gadziriro bhajeti plan, uye zvimwe zvinyorwa zvakawanda zvinokosha zvemari.