Sei akawira mafuta? Mutengo mafuta inowira: zvinokonzera, migumisiro

Sei Oil Falls mutengo? nyaya iyi inonetsa nyanzvi dzakawanda, sezvo mutengo parafini pamusika remarudzi kunokanganisa upfumi enyika dzakawanda, kunyanya mu Russia. Kubva September 2014 kusvika March 2015 kwakanga chinoshingaira mafuta pamusoro kuwa. Pashure pfupi takanga tisisanakidzwi, mutengo akadzokera pasi. Kana isu funga mamiriro ezvinhu kubva pfungwa nemaonero pfungwa, mashoko zviwanikwa chokuita muchikwata che exhaustible uchakwira gore negore. Asi nokuda mamwe mamiriro ezvinhu mutengo huni akawira pasi pokudzora enyika pamusoro misika wemari.

The ezvinhu aripo

Kuti tinzwisise nei kudonha mafuta kunobatsira hwakadzama tinyatsonzwisisa ezvinhu ari pamusika. In June 2014 hapana hapana zviratidzo dambudziko, uye mutengo Upfu "ndarama dema" paakasvika mucherechedzo $ 115. vaongorori Most vaiva nechivimbo chokuti pakupera 2014 mutengo uchaisa panguva kumativi $ 110. Muchiitiko chakadaro, hapana mubvunzo kunyange hurumende vaongorori, sezvo mutengo huni uwandu $ 100 waibatanidzwa bhajeti weRussia.

Kusiyana Zvaifungidzirwa inotevera 6 mwedzi, zvose musika vechikamu mukana kuchengeta hombe donhwe peturu. Machati yakasvika-gore maviri zvishoma uye kutamira nechivimbo kune zviratidzo ra2008. Minimum kwakaitika muna February panguva kumativi 47.09 madhora. Pasinei chokwadi kuti ari weOPEC nyika muchizvikudza akataura kuti havana kutya zvinoderedza huni kusvika madhora 10 chete mudende, pazasi akati pamwero kumusika kufamba pasina. Saka, kubva February 2015, akatanga imwe neizvi kuwedzera mbishi zvinhu. Nhasi mari imwe Upfu mafuta raiva 63,69 madhora.

Zvaifungidzirwa prognoziki

Just vaviri ago basa vakawanda inoti kubata musoro wake, gahadziko mubvunzo pachako pamusoro nei mutengo mafuta Falls. Zvinhu haana kuvimbisa chinhu chakanaka, sezvo akatorwa unceasingly yakayerera. Nyanzvi vanonzwisisa zvinhu, nguva dzose vakasimbirira kuti hapana zvakakomba zvinoitika.

Muchando 2015 pakanga nezvechimwe kuti pakutanga muzhizha mamiriro achange dzikamisa. Kuwa mafuta ne 40% pagore haasi akafanana yose kuwa 75% panguva dambudziko muna 2008.

WeOPEC musangano mukutanga tsime anopa zvishomanana mhinduro yomubvunzo wokuti nei madonhwe mafuta. Ndicho nyore: dzaita yave dzakanaka kudiwa. Pasinei nokuti mamiriro ezvinhu akanga asina kuchinjwa kusvikira unotevera musangano States, iyo yakarongwa June 2015, munyika yose pamusika Vatori kuchengeta zvakanaka mupumburu shure mafuta mitengo munenge 20%. Tinogona kutaura kuti kumanikidzwa mafuta kubva enyika zvinhu zvishoma yakaderera, uye for kuwedzera mari mudhiramu kusvika 65 madhora pakazopera 2015 anogona kunzi chaizvo.

Chii chakaita kuwa pamisika mafuta?

World musika mafuta nyanzvi, ongorora mubvunzo nei madonhwe mafuta, vakasvika pakugumisa kuti mamiriro ezvinhu akanga kufurirwa siyana zvinoita. Nemhaka saturation muna 2014 enyika uye zvoupfumi zviitiko zvenyika anoratidza chimwe pafungidziro pamusoro rutapudzo emashoko matambudziko. Unogona kutaura pakutanga shale gasi yechimurenga America. Kubvira 2008, hurumende chinotsva Kugadzirwa mavhoriyamu yakawedzera mamiriyoni 4 emiti pazuva. Zvinonzi zvishoma apfuura raiva US raiva rakakura mutengi kuti "ndarama dema".

Kuchinja mutemo munyika akatitungamira kwete chete kune nokuwedzera bhuku parafini pamusika, asi chinokosha zvinoderedza kudiwa. Unogona kutaura zvirango EU kwakaitwa Russia. Not rokupedzisira basa paumbwe ezvinhu rakabatsira huchadzokerazve mafuta kumusika reRibhiya uye Iran.

Kuwa mafuta: kushamisika kana maitiro akanaka?

Kare mukupera muchando 2015 zvakanga zvisingaiti kuti nharo nezvokuti nomutengo mafuta Falls. Zvikonzero Fani iyi, nyanzvi inowanikwa dzakawanda dzakasiyana zvebasa kukura zvenyika munharaunda. Dzakakurumbira chaizvo pfungwa, maererano izvo kuderera mashoko - vanoedza ndokudzinga Saudi Arabia kuUnited States pamusika. Nyika, kuva indasitiri mutungamiri, vakakwanisa kuchikosha kukanganisa pamusika. Kwete kuda kurasikirwa vatengi vavo, vachisarudza havo kuchengeta vatungamirire, Saudi Arabia vazodzikisa mitengo kusvika padanho kugadzirwa mari mafuta muUnited States, iyo Akaperekedzwa ari kuvhara imwe nhamba makambani muUnited States. Zvikurukuru, Venezuela haana kutsigira mumwe wake uye rwaizoda mitaro mukurima mutengo rutapudzo.

Ko waishandiswa kuongorora prices?

Uchifunga simba pamusoro purogiramu, mubvunzo wokuti nei mafuta akawa, upstaged. Nyanzvi dziri kufarira, izvo achatumirwa mberi kufamba.

Kare mukupera muchando 2015, nevaya vanofungidzira nezvezvakanaka simba rutsigiro pamwero, rakamiswa pachiyero madhora 36 (mutengo muna 2008). Yakanga kwaari dzakanga vakaronga kutenga. It aitarisira kwete chete kubatwa, asi muedzo zvakanaka kukosha 30 - $ 33, iyo zvinotisvitsa fungidzira kutya. Asi mamiriro ezvinhu akaita zvishoma zvakasiyana. The mutengo asvika pachiyero $ 47, ipapo akatendeuka akaenda. Panguva iyoyo, pane vanokwanisa chakanaka kukura. The kupfuura zvakanaka Zvaifungidzirwa zvinoratidza kuti pakazopera 2015, mutengo akavharwa pa $ 85 chete dhiramu kana zvakatowanda. Ndinoda kutaura kuti masangano makuru Analytical uye World Bank, pasinei kuumbwa uptrend, kutarisira rimwezve kwidza peturu pasi avaida kukura kusvika zvakafanotaurwa tsika.

Pamanyorerwo mutsva chinhu musika

Kana makore mashomanana apfuura mhinduro yomubvunzo wokuti nei mafuta inowira, kwaiva kupa nyore chaizvo, asi nhasi kunyange kwenguva pfupi maonero hazvina kururama kwazvo. Izvi imhaka yokuti nenhumbi chaiwo rashanduka "pepa" zvinhu. Chinoshingaira zvokutengeserana zvibvumirano uye neramangwana. Product Vhoriyamu inosimbisa ndiyo 5 chete%. Kufungisisa mamiriro ezvinhu munyika ine simba upfumi munyika dzakawanda uye vane Russia matambudziko, unova nokutengesa simba kupfuura mafuta, zvinogona kunzi pokuwa Pricing.

upfumi Resource muBhaibheri wokuRussia Federation: kuti aikanganiswa kuchinja dzakawanda chinokosha pamusika mitengo

Kubvira muna 1999, upfumi Russian ari kushingaira kukura. Kubvira 2003, ayo zvakanaka mamiriro vanosungirwa kuwedzera munyika mitengo kuti simba vatakuri. Akanaka ezvinhu akabatsira kubhadhara yokumwe chikwereti nokusika munhu Kudzikamiswa mari. Vanoverengeka nezvinetso zvamagariro vakaenda yokukanganwa. Kare, zvakanakira uye zvakaipira nhasi - zvakananga kuvimba mbishi zvinhu uye nekusagona muzadze bhajeti nezvimwe sectors hwenyika.

Muna 2014, kuti bhajeti rakaumbwa nokuda dzakakwirira mari kubva kutengeswa simba kusvika 1 tiririyoni rubles. Kudai zvaisiyiwa rutapudzo mari kubva kumwewo kuti rubles mabhiriyoni 300. Izvi inotsanangura nehanya wehurumende zvinokonzerwa mubvunzo uyu: "Nei mafuta Falls, dhora rinobuda?".

Vakatambura pamusana unopinza kuderera mune mitengo?

The unopinza Kuderera mune mitengo mafuta nepamusika nyika kwakaita nenyonganyonga iri upfumi chinokosha-mhando inoti. Russia rava kupenya muenzaniso rakananga kukanganisa zvinhu pamusoro chinhu pamusika pamusoro upfumi. Kana chinotsva nechivimbo kuenda neyakaoma dzavo, uye nyanzvi vakadzidza mubvunzo kuti sei kuwira kudiwa mafuta munyika aigona kuonekwa zvakawedzera kudiwa dzimwe mari, matambudziko ari rwezvemabhengi zvekutepfenyura rakapinza kudzikira mune zvinodiwa pakurarama. Zvinofanira akati pamusoro mukuru ngozi kuderedza of Ruble. Nhasi, ari mafuta mutengo rollback mamiriro anonzwa nechivimbo Zvisinei, kusvikira yakatsvuka muenzaniso upfumi chisingazobudiswi kutumwa shure, musi wakakodzera Zviitiko mangwanani kutaura.