Chii chichaitika mafuta: Zvaifungidzirwa

Mubvunzo chii chichaitika mafuta zvido hombe chikamu vepasi. Kufarirwa pakugadzirwa mitengo kuti "ndarama dema" ichatsanangura simba ravo kwete emari kunyika dzakawanda, asi pamusoro pose upfumi hwose.

Prices 2014

In yechipiri yezana 2014 mari mbishi zvinhu raiva $ 110 sandara, izvo zvakakwana wakanyatsokodzera kwete chete kuRussia asiwo dzimwe nyika kwekurasira sehuni. Russia bhajeti kukasawedzerwa nokuda simba basa mafuta kubudisa makambani pakukura, zvikurukuru, akadai "Gazprom". Mafuta ndokumuka mutengo kusvikira mid-zhizha 2014 uye ukasvika Parainge panguva kumativi 115 emadhora. Mamiriro ezvinhu aripo ari USA, iyo weOPEC nyika uye mune dzimwe nyika dzomuEurope. With kuguma chirimo 2014 uye kuguma December yose nyika vakatarisa kunokurumidza donhwe mitengo mafuta, iyo asvika pamwero $ 60. Pakazopera yechando zvakanzi hwakanyorwa-gore Multi neyakaoma panguva kumativi $ 48. Panguva iyoyo, nyanzvi kunyange nyika vasingagoni kutaura chokwadi chikamu chii chichaitika kune mafuta munguva yemberi iri pedyo, sezvo uprofita zvose pamberi, zvainge chose chakaipa.

Zvinhu inotokonya donhwe ramafuta, uye simba ravo rava

Kuedza kuita nokufanotaurirwa yeramangwana, nyanzvi dzakawanda vanosemburwa kubva zvinhu, mu pfungwa dzavo, zvakakonzera kuwa mitengo. Unogona kutaura pfungwa dzinotevera:

• Kuderedza mwero ikure upfumi hwenyika. The EU uye China kunge nemhuru dziri kukura, Japan uri kudzikira. Industry inoti anoda zvishoma huni, iyo zvinotisvitsa zvikuru zvinoderedza kudiwa. A yakawanda mafuta uye kushaya mubereko kwaari kuti kukurudzira kuwa muna mitengo. Nyanzvi dzinofungidzira zvishomanana kuvandudzika ezvinhu pakazopera 2015.
• WeOPEC, sezvo September 2014, yekudyidzana zvakawedzera bhuku yakabereka huni pamwero mamiriyoni 30.5 emiti. Saudi Arabia rinoziviswa kuti anoda haana kuderedza quotas kuti "ndarama dema", kunyange kana mutengo wayo musika nyika ichava 20 chete madhora.
• Kukura oiri muUnited States kusvika pamwero mamiriyoni 8.9 emiti.
• More makwikwi rava hwaro dhisikaundi pamusoro kutenga mafuta. Mune yakaoma kutamburira mutengi muna 2015, kurasikirwa ari mutengo akabvuma kunyika dzakadai Kuwait uye Iran, Saudi Arabia.
• Kunopindirana kudiwa Mahydrocarbon ipfupi nokuda chiitiko Europe ine simba-kuponesa ruzivo. Muitiro mumakumi emakore anotevera hakuzochinji.

Kana tikafunga zvose zvinhu pamwe chete, zvino vanoti kuti pakazopera 2015 mamiriro pamusoro musika nyika hakuzoitiki shure pamusoro mafuta njanji. Nyanzvi Most hunoratidza kuwedzera mari huni kuti azvipire $ 75. Pamisika 5 May 2015 zvakanzi ngadzirambe mutengo pa $ 70.

Mutengo mafuta muna 2015, kufungisisa sarudzo hurumende

Nyanzvi dzakawanda, vachiedza kuita achifanotaura nezvokuwa chii chichaitika mafuta gore rino, vamutye kungobva sarudzo hurumende munyika-vatori zvenyika musika mafuta. Saudi bhajeti ndokukweverwazve kumusoro kufungisisa chokwadi chokuti mari mudhiramu mafuta richawira kuvatumwa muna 2014. Nokuda kwechikonzero ichi, nyanzvi dzakawanda vakanga vachitamba kuti huni yose 2015 vachange kuchinjanisa pa $ 99. Mushure musika pokuwa nyika bhajeti kwave anodzokororwa chose. Danda rakaitirwa munhu $ 60 chete Upfu mafuta. Munda pamutemo racho zvemari vakatanga kuonekwa Zvaifungidzirwa kuti 2015th mutengo huni kuchaita haapfuuri mutengo pamwero $ 65. Izvi ndichisunga kuna Saudi Arabia nokuti kuti hurumende ndiyo mutungamiriri cartel rinonzi weOPEC.

Zvakataurwa pagungano remarudzi musangano April 2015?

Muna April, 2015 pamusoro munharaunda Texas vaipinda yemarudzi musangano, umo achishingaira kukurukurwa nyaya chokuita mafuta. Muhurukuro yake, musoro "Lukoil" kambani yakarira shoko nezvokuti huni mitengo havazorwarizve kukambaira pasi. Muzvinabhizimisi Vagit Alekperov akataura chokwadi kusvika uye nokuputsa mitengo pana neyakaoma yenhau, izvo zvakananga anoratidza kuti sezvisingaitiki kuenderera muitiro. Maererano Goldman Sachs dzezvematongerwo Jeff Currie wokutanga hafu 2015 mitengo vakaburukira nokuda racho Zvaifungidzirwa nechakaipa yechitatu chikamu 2015. The prerequisites Fani iye anoti ari zvikuru unopinza achamuka US dhora. Jeff chinotarisa ndechokuti chakakuita kugadzikana wedzeredzei. In ake pfungwa zvakakwana akabvuma Juha Kahenyan, akashanda se Mutevedzeri mukuru IMF reboka muAsia uye kuMiddle East. nyanzvi Vose tichingoti chero zvimwe kuwedzera mitengo, iyo akafanotaurwa uye IMF. Yeuka kuti muna mukupera August 2014 vanachiremba rinotarisa mutengo mafuta pakazopera 2015 iri kuwanda $ 99.

Kurutivi mari rechipiri

Uchifunga mubvunzo chii chichaitika namafuta munguva yemberi, haana kubvumirana maonero Kahenyana uye Kerry, uye rinoramba kuti IMF for Aydar Kozybaev, mumiririri National Bank of Kazakhstan. Anoti kuti mafuta zvenyika havazokwanisi kugara kumativi US $ 99 munguva yemberi iri pedyo, uyezve, haritombotauri kusvika ichi chechetere. Economist rinoshandisa $ 85 chete Upfu Brent kwakafumuka mafuta uye madhora 75 paminiti mudhiramu musi kwakafumuka mafuta witi. zvekungofungira dzavo nyanzvi inobva zvakasimba ezvinhu kuRussia, nyika dzakadai Azerbaijan uye Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan uye Turkmenistan, izvo importing States. Oversupply mafuta kwakaita kuti kudonha mitengo uye tsime kudzikamisa zvinhu munyika dzinoverengeka zvinokosha chokuita kudzorerwa mutengo chechetere. Mune ramangwana, zvinenge kuchapfuurira, pasinei nokuti muna 2014, kufadza (105 - 110 emadhora por mudende) uye havagoni kuwana.

Most Zvaifungidzirwa kugwinha muna 2014: pamusika pamusoro pehurumende bhajeti

Kare muna 2014, fungidziro inotyisa zvokuti pose vanoongorora mashomanana, kusanganisira Russia akanga kuti, maererano nako mashoko mafuta achadonha kusvika padanho $ 60. Kazhinji kacho, nyanzvi dzinobvumirana nemashoko mutengo "ndarama dema" muna 2015 panguva $ 90. Kunetseka kuitika hunotora zvinoderedza pamusoro Urals mafuta kusvikira 91 madhora 2015 uye kuti $ 90 kuti 2016 - 2017. Anofungidzirwa, izvi zvinofanira kutungamirira rutapudzo pamusoro GDP muna 2015 kusvika padanho 0,6% chete kupora kuti azvipire 1,7 - 2.8% kare muna 2016 - 2017. Beyond kuti, sezvo zvinhu zvairatidza chokwadi (achiwira pasi $ 49 mudhiramu muna January), nyika yose akatarisa. The musika mafuta aizvibata nenzira nezvimwewo nenzira.

Where kutsvaka chokwadi?

Zvaifungidzirwa All vava kukwanisa kupa vaongorori anosiyana chaizvo, kubva chaizvo tariro kushushikana. WeOPEC nyika, izvo handidi kuderedza quotas peturu, kufunga kuitika ane kuwa muna mitengo $ 20, sezvo kutaura kuti izvi hakuzochinji dzavo nzira. IMF chivimbo nezveremangwana uye anotenda kuti pakazopera 2015, akatorwa mafuta achafadzwa tsika dziri kuwanda 90 - 99 madhora. Most musika vechikamu nyore kuongorora mamiriro ezvinhu uye kudzivisa zvisarudzo zvinokosha. Tinogona kutaura kuti chokwadi nhema kumwe pakati, uye sezvinoratidzwa mamiriro pamusoro musika nhasi. Pasinei chokwadi kuti oiri nenyika mumakore 3 - 4 months asina kuchinja, mutengo mafuta akaita richaparadzwa kure zvishoma. Saka, sezvo zviri mid-June 2015, Brent iri pamwero pedyo 65 madhora muzana mudende, pasinei nokuti vaedze pachiyero $ 70 chete dhiramu.

Statistics ne mwedzi muna 2015

Saka, apo kuita kuenda mberi kumusika mafuta? Nokudzidza chinokosha zvinhu, nyanzvi dzakawanda dzinoti rimwe uye zvakafanana. Mafuta kunze kwenyika munyika dzakawanda icharamba zvakafanana kusvikira pakupera 2015, izvo rinopa chikonzero chakanaka kutaura zvinotevera tsika:

• Mukutanga June, mutengo mafuta neavhareji $ 66 pakupera kwemwedzi zvichaita kumisa pamusoro zvinyorwa 69 emadhora. Projected kuti vaifanira kuti $ 76 uye zvishoma kuti $ 60. Nokuti mavhiki maviri June rokutanga hutsvene nenhongonya zvichigere kuitwa.
• In July ramangwana aizobudirira zvikuru. Zvichaita kutanga kumativi $ 69 uye ichaguma ane mutengo $ 72. Kufadza uye zvishoma achava kwevari 77 madhora uye 61 madhora. Avhareji yemari - $ 71.
• Kubva September kusvika December mutengo siyana, pasinei nokuti oiri nenyika zvinogona redistributed nokuda pokumuka deposits mari iri Russian Arctic uye revitalization zvirongwa zviri US, zvichaita siyana 55 madhora kusvika 77 madhora.

Chii chakamirira nyika pamusika muna 2016 - makore 2017?

Kure nokuva munyika mudanga mamiriro ezvinhu hakutadzisi guru vanoongorora pose, kusanganisira vamiririri kambani "Gazprom", mafuta ayo sangano kuonekwa kwete chete munguva yemberi iri pedyo, asi nokufamba kwenguva. Achienzanisa akawanda zvichaitika, tinogona kutaura kuti munguva 2016 pamusika nemafashamo anowa haazovanzwiri. Mukupesana, mamiriro ezvinhu acharamba kuvandudza. Nyanzvi vanokurudzira kutanga kubva pasi kuti $ 68 muna January uye kuvimba vaifanira kuti $ 105 muna December. Muna 2017, mamiriro ezvinhu hakuzochinji. Muna March, April uye May anogona kuderedzwa kuti madhora 63 chete mudende, ane mberi rutapudzo kusvika 102 emadhora June.

Chinonyanya kuchangobva for neShumiro Economic Development kweRussia

Bazi Economic Development kweRussia iri kuramba iri mitengo mafuta 2016 ne 10%. The toughest kushurudzira rinoratidza mutengo $ 50 pakazopera 2015. Nzwisisika kudzorerwa mari siyana kuguma chirimo 2014 zvinotarisirwa muna 2018, asi kwete kwokutanga. Information Document chaipiwa kuruzhinji April 10, 2015, pamwe paneer kuchinja ayo uye mazuvaano, kuchinjira kumamiriro ezvinhu mune ramangwana. Nhungamiro umo mutengo mafuta achaenda, mumwe upfumi nyika-kirasi anogona kumanikidza chiratidzo chero nguva, kunyanya kana isu kufungawo redistribution pakati migove mumusika mafuta dzakawanda. Omerera mumwe pamutemo rakabudisa zvaraifunga haisi zvakakodzera, sezvo zviitiko zvingaitika munyika, achagadzirisa zvinhu pamwe mubereko. Makambani makuru munyika mafuta akadai "Gazprom", mafuta haasi kukwanisa kutuma mugwara. Zvazvinosarira chete kutevedzera zviitiko munyika. Kupinza nyaya, unogona kusvika pamwero tsanangura sei chichagadzirirwa emashoko mafuta.