Macroeconomic kusagadzikana

Macroeconomic Kugadzikana - zviri panzvimbo masanga pane mutemo. Practice inoratidza kuti iri upfumi hapana pachiyero. Zvichitevera nguva kubudirira uye kukura kunouya nguva kudzikira, achiperekedzwa urovha. Uyezve, upfumi zvinogara uye mhando dzakasiyana nguva zvikamu, uye zvimwe zvinhu. Saka, maererano nguva vari pfupi, svikiro uye refu.

Short zvinogara rairatidza Dzhozef Kitchin, British Economist. Iye chokuita navo nokufamba mukati reserves goridhe. Periodicity, inosidzikwa Kitchin, mwedzi makumi mana.

Wesley Mitchell, muvambi econometrics, vaidavira kuti pfupi zvinogara chikonzero iri mari turnover, uye akabvumirana yapfuura maitikiro.

Kutaura zvazviri, zvinogara aya anesungano kushaya zvakanakanaka mutengi pamusika. Zvakachinja mbiri bhora ndizvo chikonzero kwavo, saka ivo kuonekwa muchimiro kadhi crunch.

Muhafu yechipiri yezana remakore rechi19, Klement Zhuglyar, mumwe Economist French, akaongorora avhareji zvinogara. mhaka yavo akaona, zvakare, pasango zvikwereti. Klement Zhuglyar akaratidza kakawanda yechipiri zvinogara muna masere kusvika gumi apfuura.

Chete mhando zvinogara zviri zvinogara uye kuvakwa kuchiratidzwa Simon Kuznets. Iye chokuita navo nguva nenguva (makore gumi nemashanu kana makumi maviri nerimwe) a ndiwedzere dzimba.

Long (kana refu) zvinogara zviripo nokuda zvachinja kwezvivako, simba uye kiyi ruzivo. Zvikasadaro, ichitanga rinonziwo Kondratiev kutenderera, maererano nokudzidzisa Russian Zita - Nikolaya Kondrateva. Akadzidza marasha kugadzirwa emuchina, simbi, tini, uyewo avhareji pamwero mubayiro, mitengo, vatorwa zvokutengeserana uye zvimwe zviratidzo zviri US uye dzimwe nyika dzokuMadokero European kwemakore 140 (kubva okupedzisira maviri emakore muzana remakore rechi18 uye kuzviuraya makore makumi maviri remakore rechi20). Kondratyev aiitisa zvidzidzo econometric uye vakatsunga kuti vazhinji zvinogara okupedzisira makore 54-55, apo mukuchengeta vachikwira nekuburuka danho.

Rigone danho kana kuchinja chinoumba michina uye kwesayenzi ezvirevo kunotora 20 kusvika 25 makore.

Achifumira danho, kana nzanga kusangana kuwedzera upfumi, ano uye sainzi, kunotora 25 kusvika 30 makore.

The zvakanyatsoenzana ari upfumi vasipo kuti zvakawanda. Chokutanga, kusagadzikana mune makro zvikurukuru anoenderana zvinhu dzakadai rwokugadzira michina kugadzirwa. Kakawanda kuchinja kutsamwisa pfupi kudzikira uye kupora, uye avo vari vakaita zvishoma kakawanda (somuenzaniso, kuvaka mabhiriji itsva nedzimwe nhengo), kuti izvi nguva yakareba.

Zvisinei, macroeconomic kusagadzikana kunokonzerwa kwete chete nokuda chinhu ichi. On dambudziko periodicity pakati nokufamba vari upfumi haana akaramba hanya hapana nezvoupfumi ose 19-20 emakore. Kuedza kunzwisisa zvinokonzera Fani iyi, ivo ndakasika yakawanda yakasiyana dzidziso. The zvihombe zvinotsanangurwa maererano kusagadzikana hwenyika zviri zvinotevera nzira.

1. Maererano wokutanga pfungwa, kubata chiito kunotangira cyclical akisarareta uye multiplier.

2. Vanotsigira dzidziso enyika mubhizimisi kutenderera vanodavira kuti macroeconomic kusagadzikana chinovapo Somugumisiro Vagadziri Mutemo munda nemari, kuronga mari, zvikwereti uye mitero.

3. vanotsigira dzidziso zvakanyatsoenzana mabhizimisi kutenderera zvikonzero kuiona uku kuitika munguva pfupi nguva.

4. Masayendisiti dzinofungidzira chaiyo mabhizimisi inaye, anoratidza kuti macroeconomic kusagadzikana kunoitika nokuda kuchinja kamwe kamwe akasiyana sectors hwenyika, kureva, kana rinooneka kuchinja kugadzirwa michina.

Mumwe nomumwe pfungwa idzi maonero kusvika pamwero zvakarurama anoratidza zvikonzero kuzengurira. Asi vakawanda pfungwa kuti vaizoziva zvikoro zvose zvoupfumi, nhasi haako.