Kuwa Ruble (muna 2014). Chikonzero kuwa Ruble

The Russian upfumi yakapedza mumwe ose nezvinetso, mumwe icho - the kwakaderera National mari pamusoro dhora. Chii chinokonzera kuwa Ruble? Chii - a systemic chakajairika kana dzokufungidzira nomugumisiro? Migumisiro kuti vanhuwo vagari uye mabhizimisi?

The tariro kushurudzira

Maererano vamwe vaongorori, US Dollar kuti ukoshi pakazopera 2014 anogona kukura kusvika 37-40 rubles (kana zvichava paavhareji US Dollar Gengi). Chikuru chikonzero kwakaderera pakati Banknotes Russian rinonzi kuparara National upfumi. The nyanzvi, vari vatsigiri yakadaro tariro fungidziro, vanodavirawo kuti kare pasi GDP emuchina achawira mberi, uye guta - ichibva nyika.

Nzvimbo Ruble, vaongorori pessimists tenda haazorambi chete kuzorwa dhora, asiwo vamwe guru nyika mari simba. Panewo maonero kuti ikozvino pane nguva kutsiga Ruble kuderedza iri Russian upfumi, nokuda nokuderera pachiyero vachibhadhara. Kuwedzera nzvimbo Russian mari, vaongorori vanoti, anogona kukonzera mutemo pamusoro Federal Reserve System of USA, izvo 2014 aigona kuramba kuderedza mari matanho nezvainoita upfumi, uye muna 2015 kuti atange kumutsa refinancing unodiwa.

Maererano vatengesi

Nyanzvi mune dzimwe Exchange kwema inokurukurwawo kuti nzvimbo Ruble kuzorwa dhora haasi kupfuura kuti vamwe mari. musika nematambudziko, maererano vatengesi, akanga vaedzwa, uye rokuAustralia dhora, ari Argentine Peso uye Turkish National mari - the Lira. Vose zvavo, sezvo Ruble - vanonzi "chinokosha" mari. Pakapera 2014 dhora, maererano kutengeserana nyanzvi, rinogona yaiita 34-35 rubles, euros - vanenge 45-46 zviumbu yeRussian mari. Pasina gore, zvisinei, pangava nokufamba.

Chikonzero chikuru chakaita kuti kuwa Ruble, tenda vashambadzi - ari pose reorientation mari Rwako - capital water drainage kubva zvichiitika pamisika, raiva Russia, uye paakapiwa mune upfumi dzakabudirira. Izvi zviri kuitika kungava akakodzera mumakore anouya. Zvisinei, ari kunetesa national mari yacho Russian Federation, sezvo nyanzvi zvemari vanotenda, anogona kunzwa zvakasimba vagari: refu ndingangokuvara kukura nevatengi mitengo.

The maonero zvesayenzi kwezvakatipoteredza

Dzimwe nyanzvi kubva nhamba nezvoupfumi vanodavira kuti depreciation yacho Ruble inofambidzana kuramba tichishanda hunhu muna 2014. Somugumisiro wokusarudza iri Central Bank kurerutsa yokumwe Exchange musika murau anogona akaongororwa. Zvisinei, kamwe chete Gengi nechokumusoro, musimboti bhengi anogona zvakare zinyekenyeke kudzora vachiriita. Kwazvo National mari mutemo, sezvo nyanzvi dzinofunga zvinoenderana dudziro kwakakodzera uye kunzwisisa zvoupfumi kukura. Somuenzaniso, kutaura pamusoro kukura upfumi chaihwo muenzaniso dzakabudirira, maererano vasayendisiti, hapana chikonzero, nokuti pane basa zvinodhura.

Chakagadzirwa kukura kuburikidza kuunganidza nokururama Investments - iri, maererano nedzimwe nyanzvi, "sefuro" kuti kuparuka pakupedzisira. Zvisinei, nokuti Russia, sezvo masayendisiti anodavira, kukura kwoupfumi ingava zvaioneka, uye ndicho kwakaderera currency - ari chinhu chaicho kwayo anotikurudzira. In kuwa Ruble yakawedzera kunze kwenyika, ukuwo vanoita batsiro rinobuda (asiwo kunogona kuderedza kutendeseka mumusika).

The netariro Muchiitiko

Pasinei nokuwanda kunaka apa chokuita Ruble pamusoro dhora wayo nezvainoita yokuRussia upfumi, ari pakati nezvoupfumi zvakasiyana kuona zvinhu. Pane shanduro muna 2014 vamwe dambudziko, hunhu makore rapfuura, kubvisa euro rokufambira, inova huru kutengeswa naye weRussia. Emari munyika umo mukuru mari - euro, muna 2014 aigona kukura neinopfuura 1%.

Izvi zvingaita kuti ikure Russian aina pakugadzira zvinhu, uyewo nokuwedzera mutengo nokuti. Kana izvozvo zvikaitika, uchamera, uye kutengeswa pachisara yeRussian Federation, uye pashure zvichaita kunetesa water drainage vemamwe guta. The mugumisiro aitsigira sezvo Ruble pamusoro dhora. Maererano yakadaro tariro Muchiitiko, reRussia GDP kukura pakupera 2014 anogona kupfuudza 2.5%, ukuwo dhora Gengi kuchaita haapfuuri 33 rubles. Saka, vakapa Forecast, kana chido kuderera pamusoro Ruble mukati 2014.

retrospective

Pakati nezvoupfumi pane pfungwa kuti depreciation of Ruble pachinhu kutungamirira nyika mari - the Chiitiko zvikuru itsva uye zvachose dzinongoitika kune Russian upfumi. Kunyange kana tisina kufunga dambudziko 1998 , apo Russian Bank chitsamba dhora akawira kakawanda, zvakakwana kuyeuka kudzikira hwenyika muna 2008-2009. Ipapo Russian mari kwave kuchiita kanenge yakasimba kuderedza kupfuura 2014. Zvisinei, sezvo zvakazoitika akaratidza kuti Ruble pamusoro mashomanana akatevera, nechivimbo airidza nzvimbo dhora uye euro.

Unogonawo kuyeuka currency dzokutengeserana kuwa 2012 - apo kosi yacho inozivikanwa zvikuru volatility, nyanzvi dzakawanda akafanotaura kwava kuda kuparara Ruble, asi izvi hazvina kuitika. Nhasi, ari Russian mari rawa mutengo, asi inobva zvakaitika apfuura, uye haigoni kupa mukana kuti kure-kusvika pakugumisa pakuzadzisa reNational upfumi. Muna 2008-2009, upfumi aiva chaizvo zvikonzero kuwa Ruble. 2014 ndipo kungaratidza zvimwe zvinhu kukanganisa Russian mari.

Nezvemaitiro kusimukira

Pane maonero pakati nezvoupfumi kuti Ruble ari kuita mu mari dzokutengeserana yakakomba sezvo Banknotes uye dzimwe nyika dzichiri kubudirira, kunyanya nyika BRICS (izvo Rank sezvo Brazil, India, Russia, China neSouth Africa, dzimwe nguva). The chokwadi kuti zvino pane yose mubhizimisi water drainage vokune dzimwe nyika vanoita kubva upfumi izvi. Zinyekenyeke National mari, sezvo pane zvakanaka chikonzero kuwa - the Ruble, chechokwadi, Currencykuva kana Rand Hazvina basa - kutariswa nevanhu nyika veboka. Russia, saizvozvovo achingotarisira Kukwezva kuti dzimwe guta.

The water drainage kuti mari iri chokuita kuti chokwadi kuti US Federal Reserve zvishoma nezvishoma akasungirirwa mari mutemo, kuderedza issuance pamusoro unsecured zvemadhora uye kuwedzera mudzimba mubereko prices pamusoro zvikwereti. Zvichitevera muenzaniso vaitungamirira upfumi hwenyika "tightening mubhanhire dzavo" uye dzimwe dzakabudirira. Vanoita kuona zviri kuitika, zvakazadza nechivimbo zvikuru kumisika izvi uye vanosarudza kutumira ravo guru ikoko, pane munyika dzichiri kusimukira. Nezvoupfumi vanotaurawo kuti BRICS mari haisi zvokuti simba sezvo dhora akasimbisa nokuda nani US pamusika ezvinhu.

Internal zvinokonzera vachinetesa pamusoro Ruble

Akawira Ruble sezvo dzimwe nyanzvi dzinodavira, imhaka kwete zvokunze uye dzimwe zvinhu. Chekutanga, nokuda yezviri Review Central Bank of Russia marezinesi kubva private mabhanga - muna 2013 muitiro yakaitwa musi 20-pamahombekombe zvemari masangano. Chinonyanya resonant muenzaniso - the kuvhara kuti "Tenzi-Bank", mumwe wemisha mikuru munyika. Chechipiri, kuti Bank of Russia akasarudza zvishoma regai kuenda pamusoro Ruble mu "vakasununguka akayangarara".

Chikonzero ichi - chido kukurudzira maindasitiri kusimudzira nyika, izvo zvisiri nyore kuchengeta profitability pakati aina. "Simba" Ruble aigona kuderedza mutengo nenhumbi Russian uye kuti mudzimba kugadzirwa zvakawanda zvemakwikwi. Vamwe nezvoupfumi vanodavira kuti kuparara National mari yacho Russian Federation zviremera kunobatsira: zvikwereti akatorwa nehurumende zvisungo zviri rubles, uye mafuta kwemari rinowanikwa muna US zvemadhora. With kukura dhora ehurumende achagamuchira kupfuura paNational mari kubhadhara yechimbadzo zvisungo.

Zvakazokonzerwa kwakaderera ari Ruble

Chii zvingangoisa mungozi depreciation of Ruble? Pasinei nokuti kwakaderera currency - uyu, pakutanga kwezvose, macroeconomic zviratidzo, zvinokonzerwa Fani iyi inogona kubatwa uye vagari zvavo. Maererano nedzimwe nyanzvi, kuwa National mari yeRussia kungaita kuti dzakakwirira mitengo kuti kupinza zvinhu (kunyanya zvemagetsi, motokari, mishonga, mbatya, uyewo kugadzirwa zvinhu, mbishi zvokuvakisa pagadzirwe iyo yakatengwa kwose).

Price kwidza muzvikamu izvi sezvo vaongorori vanofungidzira, aigona kusvika 15%. Uyewo, anodhura zororo nokuda vokuRussia kwose (kunyanya munyika dzakasimukira). Mitengo yokutizira matikiti uye Hotels akataurwa zvikurukuru US madhora, uye chezita kukosha kwavo, pasinei mari nokufamba, chinoramba kuzochinja, izvo zvinoreva kuti chaiko kukosha yekufambisa kubva shanduro Russian mari inowedzerawo. Vagari saka haagoni kuva hanya Chiitiko kudonha Ruble. Chii chichaitika mberi kwakaderera national Banknotes yeRussian Federation, ivo nezvoupfumi vanotsanangura zvikuru lucidly.

Fed chikonzero

Sezvataurwa pamusoro apa, pane dzidziso kuti Ruble kuzorwa dhora zvakananga zvinobva mutemo pamusoro Federal Reserve System. Zvino sangano zvemari iyi kunoderedza vanonzi purogiramu "easing" apo muchina wokudhinda rakapa unsecured madhora. Fed zvinoderedza kutenga nezvisungo mogeji zvibvumirano. The itsva utungamiriri pamusoro Federal Reserve System rinovimbisa runoenderana kushanda chirongwa ichi. Tine tsika zvemari iyi zvimwe zvachinja ukama nezviremera. Kana makore akapfuura Fed aifanira vabvume Congress kudiwa kuwedzera pasirin'i kwezvirongwa chikwereti, asi zvino hazvina musoro - American Parliament kodzero kurishandura chokuvhenekesa chero nguva. Izvi, nezvoupfumi tenda, kunobatsira kuderedza ngozi US upfumi kubva Federal Reserve System. Saka, nepamusika US ane mukana pakudzikamisa uye, somugumisiro, achisimbisa dhora mu dzakawanda mari wokutengesera zvakanaka.

Zvayakanakira nezvayakaipira ari kunetesa ari Ruble

Kuwa Ruble - kutanga kuti hakuwanzoshandi pamusoro upfumi okusafarira. Pane Fani iyi zvakanakira nekuipira. Pakati zvazvisingarambiki zvazvakanakira - zvakawedzera zveminda zviri kwekurasira makambani uye, sezvo zvakaguma kukura kubhadhara kuti bhajeti weRussia. Dzinovhurika imupota kuzvitsinhanisa - mutengo dzimwe zvinhu kunowedzera, uye anova nani kutenga zvigadzirwa zvezvipfuwo kugadzirwa. Zvinoita kuti upfumi kukura. Uyewo, kuti tinzwisise chii zvingangoisa mungozi Ruble inodonha, zvinokosha kuyeuka kuti nyika yacho wokumwe chikwereti. Ichi mari kuti vagari vakatora mhiri kwemakungwa - kazhinji mune madhora. Naizvozvo, mukuru zvakaipira ari kunetesa wokuRussia mari - kuwedzera mutoro pamusoro anokwereta dzakadaro. The chikwereti kwokunze Russia yava mazana emabhiriyoni emadhora (maererano Masvomhu dzimwe nyanzvi, hazvina atopfuura nyika reserves dzakawanda). Long uye chinokosha kwakaderera ari Ruble unova hazvikubatsiriyi makambani (kunyanya rokutengesa mabhanga) kuti vanoda dzimwe chikwereti.

Zvaifungidzirwa kuti mabhanga

The Kudeuka mabhanga Russian uye dzimwe dziri kuedza kuongorora kuwa Ruble uye kufanotaura nezveramangwana rinomutsa National mari yacho Russian Federation. Zvinofanira kucherechedzwa kuti chikwereti zvikoro zviri kuisa kazhinji tariro. Banks akadai "VTB Capital", Morgan Stanley, uyewo "Alfa-Bank", zvinoita Zvinotarisirwa kuti pakazopera 2014 dhora achaita mari 35 rubles. Citi, "Kuwanika", "Uralsib" kuona Ruble yekudyidzana kusimbisa: mumabhuku nemasangano aya akaonekwa manhamba pakati 32,3 uye 34,5 yeRussian Currency vezvikwata por US bhanga katsamba pakupera kwegore. Several anotarisa tariro for the Ruble kubudikidza HSBC (35,4 pa dhora), "Renaissance" (35.5). Mukuru kwakaderera wokuRussia mari anoona UBS (36,5). Zvinofanira kucherechedzwa kuti pakati pamaberere noruremekedzo kuti pamahombekombe Ruble pamusoro dzimwe guru nyika mari - euro - iri vakacherechedzawo chinokosha musiyano - kubva 43,4 (Morgan Stanley) kusvika 48,4 RF vezvikwata por Euro Banknotes (Citi).