The evaMedhia iri nhamba: pfungwa, zvivako uye kukarukureta

Kuti kuva pfungwa pamusoro ichi kana kuti Chiitiko, isu dzinowanzotaura avhareji tsika. Ivo anoshandiswa enzanisa pachiyero mubayiro munyika dzakasiyana-sectors hwenyika, tembiricha uye kunonaya zviri chete munharaunda pamusoro akafanana nguva, zvibereko zvirimwa zvakasiyana nenzvimbo dzoga, uye zvichingodaro. D. Zvisinei, avhareji handiyo chete vakawanda chakarurama - mune zvimwe zviitiko pamusana neyakarurama kuongororwa anosvika yakadai evaMedhia ukoshi. In nhamba, rinoshandiswa nevakawanda webetsero rairatidza kugoverwa zvinoitwa zvakakurumbira ari kupiwa vemo. Ngationei sei zvakasiyana Zvichakadaro, uye chii chakaita kuti kudiwa kushandiswa kwayo.

EvaMedhia muna Statistics: tsananguro uye zvivako

Fungidzira zvinotevera mamiriro ezvinhu: zvakasimba, pamwechete Kumutungamiriri vanhu 10. Vashandi munhuwo kugamuchira 1,000 USD, uye avo mutungamiri, uyo, uyezve, ndiye muridzi, -. 10,000 USD. Kana isu ngaaverenge svomhu Zvichakadaro, zvinoitika kuti avhareji muhoro panguva chirimwa akaenzana 1900 OMR. Lovemore mashoko aya ndeechokwadi? Kana, kuti muenzaniso, mune imwe muchipatara wadhi ndiyo mapfumbamwe kusvika 36.6 ° C tembiricha uye mumwe munhu nako ndiyo 41 ° C. The svomhu avhareji hazvisi (36,6 * 9 + 41) / 10 = 37,04 ° C. Asi izvi hazvirevi kuti mumwe nomumwe vaivapo kurwara. izvi zvose pfungwa yokuti svikiro iri kazhinji haana kukwana, uye ndokusaka, kuwedzera ayo kushandiswa evaMedhia. In nhamba, chakarurama ichi anonzi kusarudza, riri chaizvo pakati ane akarayira munhevedzano zvakasiyana. Kana isu overenga kuti mienzaniso yedu, tinowana azvaitwa 1000 OMR. uye 36,6 ° C. Mune mamwe mazwi, mumwe evaMedhia mune nhamba iri ukoshi runoparadzanisa nhamba iri hafu zvokuti pamativi ose kwayo (kana pasi) hwakarongwa chete nhamba vezvikwata ane kupiwa yakatarwa. Nokuda pfuma ichi, chakarurama ichi ane mazita akawanda anoti: rechi50 percentile kana quantile 0.5.

How kuwana evaMedhia mune nhamba

The nzira kukarukureta chinokosha ichi kunoenderana api variational dzinotevedzana tine: a discrete kana penguva. Muchiitiko chokutanga, vezvenhau iri nyore nhamba. All zvaunofanira kuita kuwana Verengai frequencies, mugovane kubudikidza 2 uye kuwedzera mugumisiro ½. Zvakanaka kutsanangura musimboti pakuverenga muenzaniso inotevera. Ngatitii tine dzikarongwa mashoko pamusoro pakuzvarwa uye kunodiwa kuti uzive zvinhu muMedhia akapiwa.

Kuva Vamwe Masvomhu nyore, tinowana kuti aida chazvo iri: 195/2 + ½ = 98, i.e., 98th Version. Kuti uzive zvazvinoreva, kakawanda vanofanira kuramba -wedzera, kutangira kuvaduku kusarudza. Saka, Verengai maviri mitsetse vokutanga kunotipa 30. Zviri pachena kuti pane 98 zvokusarudza ikoko. Asi kana isu kuwedzera mugumisiro kakawanda pakati pfungwa yechitatu (70), tinowana Nemutengo akaenzana 100. Rinongova 98-I musiyano wezvinyorwa, saka muMedhia akapiwa ndiyo mhuri ine vana vaviri. Kana nhamba chinguva, pane unowanzoshandiswa zvinotevera fomura:

M _E = X + Ini _{Me Me} * (Σf / 2 - S _Me-1) / F _Me, sezvamakaropafadzwa:

• X _Me - evaMedhia kukosha wokutanga penguva;
• Σf - kuwanda akatevedzana (Verengai frequencies);
• Ini _Me - evaMedhia ukoshi siyana;
• F _Me - evaMedhia Frequency siyana;
• _{Me-S 1} - Verengai tinofanira kugara frequencies vari zvisungo anotangira evaMedhia.

Zvakare, pasina muenzaniso pano zvakaoma chaizvo kunzwisisa. Ngatitii tine mashoko pamusoro kukosha mubayiro.

Kushandisa pamusoro payakavakirwa, tinofanira kutanga kuona muMedhia akapiwa chinguva. Zvazvakadaro kuwanda anosarudzwa, tinofanira kugara kakawanda iri kupfuura hafu kakawanda Verengai kana kuenzana. Saka, unogovera 510 ne 2, tinoona kuti chokuratidza ichi rinoenderana penguva kubva muhoro kukosha 250,000 rubles. kusvika 300,000 rubles. Zvino zvinoita kuti kutsiva ose mashoko ari fomura:

M _E = X + Ini _{Me Me} * (Σf / 2 - S _Me-1) / F _Me = 250 + 50 * (510/2 - 170) / 115 = 286,96 zviuru kwiza..

Tinovimba nyaya yedu zvave zvichibatsira, uye iwe ikozvino une pfungwa zvakajeka chii muMedhia akapiwa iri nhamba uye sei rinofanira dzaona.