Ko dhora kuwa? mari Forecast

Kana nokubvunzurudza okuzvitonga nyanzvi chaiva pachena kuti vanhu vakawanda vari kunetseka mubvunzo kuti kana dhora vachawira. Russia kufarira vanogara pakutanga nokuti kuti US Dollar Gengi anosarudza mari kupinzwa uye, naizvozvo, mutengo Ruzhinji rwakapindura zvigadzirwa. Pane ukama nyore chaizvo. The kudhura nendarama dema anotipa inflow emadhora ari mumhuri pamusika, ari Ruble rave achishingaira akasimbisa, uye vagari venyika vanogona kutenga zvinhu pane zvine mari. Kana mafuta mutengo Falls, mufananidzo inova zvachose pakatarisana, uye mararamire ipfupi chaizvo.

Kusawirirana bhajeti muna 2015

Ndadzokera November 2014, zvakava kwazvo pachena kuti gadziriro bhajeti ya2015 uye kwete kunyatsotevera anoenderana chokwadi. Zvekushandisa kurongwa tichifunga nezvokuti kuti Upfu goridhe dema kuchaita mari munyika pamusika haina asingasviki 96 madhora. Kubva musi indekisi ichi, mari iri pamahombekombe panguva 2015 haafaniri kupfuudza 37 rubles. Zvisingatarisirwi kushamisika kwakatopfuura muna November 2014. Pakazosvika nguva US Dollar Gengi hwaienzanirana 48 rubles. By mid-December wegore iroro, izvozvo akasimuka 60 rubles. Yepamusoro kwakaitika muna nhamba iri anenge 68 rubles. Panguva dambudziko Gore Idzva, nyanzvi dzakawanda uye haana kuda kutaura pamusoro pokuwa kosi. Zvaifungidzirwa vakanga akavakirwa mberi kukura currency. Dzimwe nyanzvi pamusoro kusvika chiratidzo rubles 100 paminiti dhora. Kwete chete kwokuderera mafuta, asi vamwe zvinhu zvikonzero vava prerequisites kune akaipa kuitika.

Ko zvinhu pamwe bhajeti dhefisiti?

Nyanzvi, kufungisisa bhajeti dhefisiti nokuda kwakaderedza inflow vemamwe mari nokuda vanowira mitengo mafuta, hurukuro imwe zvichibvira, kunyange asiri kunaya zvakakwana. Kune vose prerequisites zvinokosha kuwira, uye nekukura currency. Zvose achavaponesa sei mamiriro ezvinhu acharamba pamisika mafuta munyika yose. Kunyange tichigona kutaura kuti munguva pfupi iri dhora vachawira zvishoma muRussia, riri chokuita rokuchinjwa mutengo goridhe dema zvakananga. Nepo zvikuru mafuta-earners munyika kudzosa reserves ayo zvemari pashure huru-pamwero drawdown, mari ichava kusviba. Kana nhamba chipo anoenderana 54,5 rubles muzana dhora, ungatarisira kusiyira kuna 46-48 rubles. Nokuisa ezvinhu ari mafuta mutengo, iyo yava vanotengesa pa 66,6 emadhora por mudhiramu panguva simba uptrend, tinogona nechekare kutaura kuti dhora achawira mumusika. Panguva iyoyo vari June, vakabata mumwe musangano unokosha pamusoro Member States weOPEC iro zvisarudzo kuitwa, iro basa rinokosha mune Pricing pamisika mafuta uye, naizvozvo, sei dhora kuRussia.

Zvakawanda political mamiriro ezvinhu

kakawanda Information yakarira mune dzakawanda vezvenhau kuti mushure annexation pamusoro Crimea uye yakafanana kunetsana kumabvazuva kweUkraine kuzorwa Russia vakanga hwatenderwa. Ivo zvinoshamisa kurova sectors vazhinji upfumi uye vakaisa inokanganisa ezvinhu emari munyika. Most sei oiri uye mauto maindasitiri, yacho iyo vanoumba unorema ehurumende bhajeti uye kuti vaitsigira dhora kuRussia panguva optimum chechetere. The chikuru dambudziko iri kushaya mikana kukwereta mari masangano vatorwa. Payment mubhadharo of kare akabudisa zvikwereti kumanikidza hurumende kuti zvinoshingaira kutenga madhora, iyo yaibva kunounza dzakakwirira mitengo.

Zvii zvichaitika anogona kuitwa nokuongorora mutemo Russia?

Kuti tipindure mubvunzo kana dhora vachawira, inobva enyika ezvinhu munyika, ari matambudziko chaizvo. Zvirango pamusoro Russia kwete nyika dzokuMadokero havasi kukanzura, asi mune dzimwe nzvimbo akasungirirwa. Kusakwanisa kutora zvakachipa zvikwereti vatorwa mari vaisanganisa Kubuda dzimwe vanoita kubva nyika, iyo Akaperekedzwa ane water drainage vemamwe mari. Corruption uye kumanikidzwa simba kubva nezviremera yebhizimisi akaita kuchinjwa mudzimba mabhizimisi munyika pemvura. All izvi zvinoratidza kuti dhora panguva Banks pfupi haangavi zvachinja. Ngatiti vagokungurusa shure pakanyorwa zvishoma kuwedzera mitengo mafuta, asi kuchinja zvikuru, vaongorori regai kutokurudzira kumirira kusvikira kuneta yokurwisana sezvo Ukraine uye kunyika Europe uye America.

Kushurudzira kwakavakirwa mudzimba pachena zviitiko

Kuwedzera zvimwewo zvinoitika, dambudziko regore rakapera New Year yakatangwa uye dzomunyika matambudziko mamiriro. Mumakore 15 apfuura nyika haina kukwanisa kushandura yakatsvuka zvoupfumi muenzaniso kune ano. The mafuta indasitiri iri anenge achidya kuwanika zviwanikwa zvose uye kuparadzira mari pakati ehurumende upfumi zvikamu zvakanga gogonera. Kunwisa Kugadzirwa mafuta indasitiri zvakakonzera kuderera vemamwe nzvimbo zvoupfumi. Somugumisiro, tinogona kuona refu kwazvo dhora. For mberi kuonga of US mari kunogona kuitwa, kubvira pakuti panguva nguva STRUCTURAL zvinhu apo hapana anobata. Pasina chikuru kugadzirisa upfumi hakuzochinji, uye saka Gengi achagara simba zvakakwana.

Chii chakaoma kufembera?

Nyanzvi pfungwa panyaya kana pachava dhora kuwa zvikuru diverge substantially. Hapana anopa kuzviremekedza anovimbisa kwenguva refu mari mapato. Kana pakupera 2014, nyanzvi dzakawanda nechivimbo nharo Ruble kwidza kusvika padanho rimwe inokwana zviyero mazana 1 Dollar, zvino maonero yachinja. Vanoongorora vane kuti vanodavira kuti dhora rinowira uye anoramba chivimbo kuti muitiro. The dzikatadza vachifanotaura chikonzero dzokufungidzira akavhiyiwa yakawanda pamwe American mari, izvo maererano dhefisiti yayo munyika vanogona kuva chikonzero unopinza nokufamba. The simba pamusoro dhora kunoenderana kuripwa chikwereti nevanhu mikuru nemakambani Russian. Somuenzaniso, muna December gore rakapera uye January gore rino, yaigadziriswa vanenge mabhiriyoni 32-33 emadhora chikwereti. Purchase vemamwe mari pamusoro interbank pamusika kunotungamirira kuti kusvetuka ari mashoko uye nokufarisa vanhu pasina muripo nokuda Central Bank.

Central Bank Gwaro anogona kuona dhora

To zvikuru sei Central Bank chisarudzo pamusoro aizomupa kudare dzakawanda. Pasinei chokwadi kuti hurumende yeRussia kutendera currency kuyangarara pachena, zvakanga wachengeta kodzero kuchinja kukosha Ruble zvinhu zvaipisisa. Sezvo iri Russia imwe makurusa reserves goridhe munyika, tinogona kutaura pamusoro nyika anogona kudzora nyika mari sezvo zvikuru sezvinodiwa. Chero nguva, Central Bank anogona kuchinja mari. Kana vachange akamhanyiswa kuumbwa usapinde mutemo muchina wokudhinda uye achasunungura mari asinganzwisisi, US mari nehasha achibhururuka kumusoro, kutyisidzira kuderedza pamusoro Ruble. Kana rukova imari musoro vachange zvakasimba nehurumende, anogona kunzi tarisiro achisimbisa Ruble uye dhora wacho kuderera.

Mwero vimba Zvaifungidzirwa

Kune zvitatu chete marudzi Zvaifungidzirwa. Zviri mwero tariro, tariro uye tariro. Kufunga umwe zviitiko zvipi, tinogona kutaura kuti dhora rinokundwa. Mwero remangwana rakanaka netariro Russia uye muEurope kukundikana kuva upfumi simba pasina mumhuri simba. Vaongorori anoshanda kuti mitengo mafuta pasi hazvibatsiri munyika, uye nokukurumidza mamiriro achaita pakudzikamisa uye munyika yose kumusika mafuta, uye mune Russian upfumi. Ivo kuongorora dhora. Achatanda pamusoro Kumira avo kosi muna 38-42 rubles pakazopera 2015.

Kuona zvinhu uye mari

Chokwadi chokuti dhora anowira, vanoti, uye kufa-zvakaoma remangwana rakanaka. Izvi vainyanya vamiririri vehurumende midziyo uye vanhu pedyo navo. Havazivi funga chaiwo ezvinhu, uye zvematongerwo enyika dzakakwirira. pfungwa dzavo anomiswa nezvokuti kuwa mafuta - zvakaitika hurumende US uye maoko vavo. Chinangwa anokumhan'arira - yemauto uye enyika zvichemo kubva Russia. Zvoupenzi zviitiko zvakadaro mune ramangwana vanofanira kuva zvakajeka pakazopera kwezhizha ra2015. Maererano Zvaifungidzirwa, muna 2016 itsva nyika uchasangana vaenzi panguva pre-dambudziko mamiriro. Account haina kutorwa chete chokuti nokuda kuwa muna kukosha ndarama nhema musika nyika iri kutambura, uye America pacharo, sezvo mafuta shale hakusi chisingakoshi kutanga.

Pessimists - vakawanda vanoongorora uye nyanzvi

Kudeuka boka nyanzvi anotenda kuti dhora, Central Bank akapa nhasi pa mwero 54,5, handingatongogumburwi kudzokera pre-dambudziko nzira. Liberal pfungwa vaongorori dzinotaura kuti kukura currency kuti chiratidzo 100 rubles. Zvikonzero ichi vanoona kubhadhara dambudziko, mbiri matambudziko uye kusauka vakawanda uwandu nemabhengi Enterprises. Pane zvave hurukuro kuti Russia dzaigona nenzira murayiro upfumi uye kunyange tanga ane yoku- nemanyorerwo ari USSR. Kumirira chinhu chinopa zvakadzama dambudziko anoita ngwarirai pamagariro evanhu uye kwakawanda pamusoro sovereignties.

Pano zvakafanira kuti Indent uye kupupurira chokwadi kuti hapana mikuru Zvaifungidzirwa akaita kare mwedzi mitanhatu, hachina nehafu. Izvi zvinopa chikonzero chakanaka chokudavira kuti zvimwe, kana kunyange zvingangoita kuti kufanotaura vatungamirire dhora hazvina musoro, sezvo kwainge Exchange uye zvoupfumi waivako yagara kuputswa.