Stagflation - chii? The zvinhu uye maitiro stagflation

Saka, isu funga pfungwa "stagflation." Chii? Saka akadana mamiriro hwenyika, kana kuderera uye kurega kunotanga okuwana achiperekedzwa achifumira urovha uye chenguva kuwedzera mitengo - mitengo. Kureva izwi rinorondedzera mitengo pamusoro colour zvoupfumi kurega kunotanga. Nemamwe mashoko, stagflation rinonzi usimbe chimiro ari zvoupfumi. The kukonzera izvi ndizvo Anti-dambudziko matanho, izvo anoita hurumende gwara uye nevhu rakawandisa, izvo yakakwirira azvipire mitengo munguva dzenhamo.

Izwi iri rinoshandiswa nhasi mune macroeconomics ano. Fani mutsva uyu wakaonekwa kudaro kare sezvo pamusana cyclical kukura National zvoupfumi uye kuumbwa pakubhadhara itsva kubereka kuti guta.

The tsananguro

Pfungwa stagflation yakatanga yakashuma muna 1965 mu UK. Kusvikira panguva iyoyo, upfumi paanochinja yakanga nguva dzose pamwe vasanyanye mitengo, asi, kubva 1960, munyika dzakasiyana, paiva neizvi chichiitwa, iyo yave kunzi stagflation. Chii uye chii vari zvinokonzera pezvakaitwa dzakadaro, masayendisiti akawanda kutsanangurira dzakasiyana. Possible zvikonzero zvinosanganisira zvinotevera:

1. Energy nematambudziko.
2. The kudhura kwenhumbi chindingindingi munguva dzenhamo.
3. mabasa State vakaedza kuvandudza upfumi mamiriro ezvinhu munyika.
4. General pose hwenyika uye kubviswa protectionism.

mienzaniso stagflation

Mumakore 1960-1980 pakati stagflation kuchengetwa zhinji dzakabudirira kuWest. Kune mienzaniso yakawanda, asi zvikuru asingakanganwiki kuti Russia aiva muenzaniso 1991-1996 wacho. Zvaive munguva iyi nyika ruzivo mukuru mitengo uye shingirira kuderera mune GDP. Somuenzaniso, uye upfumi kuderera muUnited States muna 1970. Nepo mwero mitengo munyika vakasvika 5.5-6%, izvo, pfungwa, uye wairatidza kuti stagflation.

Zviratidzo stagflation

About stagflation of zvoupfumi anogona ichizotongwa anotevera nzira: kuwedzera kwemabasa, akaora mamiriro hwenyika, mitengo pezvakaitwa munyika uye kuderedza National mari mumusika dzakawanda. Izvi chimiro chitsva dambudziko iri upfumi, umo mari iripo vemo hazvireve rokutenga simba yakaderera sandara, asi mutengo iri kuramba kukura.

Stagflation kunoratidzwa zvose zvezviratidzo izvi, uye vari yakaisvonaka zvose kwakaitwa zvoupfumi ezvinhu Russia - Ruble kwakaderedza padanho basa riri yakaderera pamwero, pane vakawanda kuderera mune upfumi. Chikonzero ichi, nezvoupfumi vanoti pamusoro ndingangokuvara stagflation muRussia. Chokwadi, vaongorori vanodavira kuti pezvakaitwa vakadaro vava aripo upfumi zhinji dzakabudirira zviri, asi Haingambovi nekunyaradzwa. Chiitiko pamusoro stagflation, chii, kana pane, haisati kudzidza nevanhu nezvoupfumi. Zvinofungidzirwa kuti yakafanana mamiriro upfumi kunenge kunozopera nokukurumidza kuitika. Asi chinhu chimwe vaongorori dzinobvumirana: stagflation kunotoreva chete migumisiro yakaipa.

Ndezvipi zvakaipira stagflation

Stagflation, Sezvambotaurwa, inokanganisa pamusoro upfumi. migumisiro Its - ndiko kuderera hwenyika uye kwaita rikwanise dambudziko, akadai zvinoderedza padanho chibatiso vagari, urovha uye munzanga munjodzi mamwe zvikamu vokuparidzira, kuderera GDP uye kuderera mari uye zvikwereti gadziriro.

Phillips munyonga

Somunhu nyore Keynesian muenzaniso hwenyika vangava mitengo kana mabasa. Panguva iyoyowo, vaviri vanogona Hazvizoitiki muitiro, asi kunobva zvidzidzo empirical kuitwa 50-60-ies., Vezvemari ndikazvisimbisa kuti ukama hwakadaro ariko. Stagflation uye Phillips munyonga tara mudanga uye oneka Ivan Kuchin ukama pakati mitengo uye mabasa.

The ukama pakati izvi zviviri parameters inversely Proportional, saka tinogona kufungidzira kuti pane imwe nzira, uye ukama pakati pavo. Kana Phillips munyonga chichange wakaiswa muna imwe nzvimbo, ipapo vanhu, nokududza hupfumi ezvinhu, vachafanira kusarudza zvakanakisisa kushandisa kuvandudza mamiriro - kugonesa kana zvinhu fiscal negwaro.

How kudzivisa stagflation

Setsika, kuti kudzikamisa mamiriro ezvinhu ari upfumi matanho aishanda ari shoma chete redistribution pakati kunopindirana kudiwa, izvo, chokwadi, asingadi kukanganisa imbalances zviri basa pamusika uye gadziriro pakudzorwa mumusika. Panyaya iyi, mwero mitengo vakatanga kumuka kwokutanga pane rave hwapedza basa zvizere. Somuenzaniso, kumonyanisa pamusoro uwandu hwezvinhu zvose zvabatanidzwa. kudiwa kuburikidza kushandisa mari uye fiscal matanho zvakatungamirira chete akafanorongerwa misha upfumi Phillips munyonga.

Achaita stagflation muRussia

Nokuda unopinza kuderedza pamusoro Ruble nyanzvi munharaunda vari kuramba kuita clothed Zvaifungidzirwa. Nyanzvi dzinoti yakadaro kuwa haana kunyange munguva yose zvemari dambudziko. Saka, zvave kuti Russia rakatarira stagflation. Chii uye chii ungatsauka upfumi, nechekare takakurukura. Hapana chakanaka upfumi mamiriro, Russia rikasaita sezvo stagflation anosanganisa mawa kuderera hwenyika uye mitengo.

Maererano muongorori

Achaita stagflation muRussia? Chii, kana vokuRussia tione? Kana kuri rakatevera kubvuma pamusoro wechipfuwo upfumi, unsubstantiated uye kwete anoruramiswa? Saka, kana uchitenda zvinotaurwa Muzinda Yepamusoro School nezvoupfumi, ipapo Russia achakurumidza kusangana dambudziko risinganakidzi. Its Zvinogumbura Zvaifungidzirwa analytics nyanzvi vanotsanangura sezvinotevera. Sezvo chikazozikamwa, stagflation - a multilateral chichiitwa, umo mumwe mapato kuona kwokuderera maindasitiri basa.

Pane uchapupu kuderera ichi? Kana unoyeuka regore rakapera zvabuda, yeRussia akadzivira nazvo chiyero zvoupfumi kukura pa 1.3%. Pakupedzisira musangano Economic Council Russian President Putin V. V. akataura chokwadi kuti nyika shoma munyika vanoratidza GDP yakadaro kukura. Uye vamwe vakacherechedza kuderera chokukomborerwa ichi. Enzanisa kuchinja GDP kuItaly, apo yakawira 1.9%, uye akakura kubudikidza 0.2 chete% kuFrance. Naizvozvo, tinogona kugumisa kuti Zvaifungidzirwa penyanzvi 'vari ungrounded, uye kwete saka zvakaipa pamwe emari Russia, sezvo vari kuedza kuratidza. Asi usakanganwa kuti rapfuura gore, muna 2012, Russia kuti kukura kwoupfumi yakasvika 3.4%.

stagflation mhiri anoti nokukurumidza kuwedzera mitengo munyika. Uye chokwadi maererano nenhamba, kuRussia, mutengi mitengo akamuka ne 6,5% pamusoro rokupedzisira gore. Enzanisa: muna EU vakafumira pedyo chete 1%. Kunyanya, ari kuwedzera mutengo simba akaratidza pamusoro boka chikafu chigadzirwa - ne 6.2%. Kana isu zvakare enzanisa mufananidzo uyu Data muEuropean Union, uye ikoko vakakura pedyo 1,4 chete%.

Sei kuva nenhamba muna 2014

Mutengo zvigadzirwa zvokudya yakaramba ichikura gore rino. Maererano nenyanzvi, kukura kwavo kuchava zvikuru kuonekwa, kunyanya kana mutengo zvibereko miriwo, michero, dheri uye hove zvigadzirwa, doro uye rubatsiro kune voruzhinji. Maererano yakadaro joyless Zvaifungidzirwa, zvingangoita kuti mitengo munyika mugore aigona kumuka 6%, kureva, zvichava 1,5% kupfuura indekisi, izvo akagadza Central Bank.

Ungangove, kuti Ruble zvishoma nezvishoma simba kunyange kwenguva yakareba. Izvi imhaka zvinhu zvizhinji zvakadai rutapudzo kuti kupinzwa, kurega kunotanga ari kugadzira indasitiri, kwaiva mari munyika. Zvose, akawedzera, uye geopolitical kusagadzikana. Muna Hse yakati kuti kuitira kuti vachinje ichi mamiriro ezvinhu, zviri pakuraramisa zvakadzama kuderedza currency.

Vanofanira kuteerera chimwe chinokosha stagflation, kureva, padanho kwemabasa munyika. Most ichangopfuura, hurumende vanodada akataura kuti kwemabasa mwero Russia mumakore gumi apfuura aiva rakadzika. Uye uyu ndiye zvirokwazvo zvazviri. Muna 2013, urovha mwero akanga 5.5%. Asi upfumi kuRussia DZEMUNHU DZINODZORA kukura kwayo, naizvozvo, zvinotarisirwa kuti kuchava rovha. Zvinonzi projected kuti pakazopera 2014 kwemabasa mwero chingava anopfuura 6%. Kunyange zvakadaro, kukurumidza kuwedzera chakarurama ichi haina kutarisirwa.