Kana dhora rinokundwa? Kuongorora mamiriro pamusoro mari pamusika uye munzwisise kuti dhora vachawira kana kumuka?

US Dhora pamusoro Ruble kwazvo kusagadzikana mumakore achangopfuura mushure 2008-2009 dambudziko. US mari rawa mutengo chaizvo. Muna 2013 uye mangwanani 2014 - yakura zvakare. Market nyanzvi dzinodavira kuti mamiriro ezvinhu, uyewo mhinduro yomubvunzo wokuti kana dhora vachawira, iri kutungamirirwa zvakawanda zvinhu, ezvoupfumi uye enyika.

Mutengo mafuta

Maererano nerimwe maonero, mari pamusoro Ruble muna 2014, achizosiyana zvikuru. The unopinza achamuka US mari angaperekedzwa zvishoma nezvishoma rutapudzo zviri munzvimbo yacho Banknotes Russian. The Ruble, maererano nenyanzvi, zvikurukuru ndezvokungotevedzera mitengo mafuta. The yepamusoro kwayo, dhora kurukutika. Kana mafuta mutengo Falls, hurumende yeRussia ane kuripa kuti drawdown ari bhajeti, kuti deredza zviri Ruble, yokubatsira aina "ndarama dema" zvakare.

Zvisinei, mashoko akanaka zvoupfumi achibva US uye EU nzira zvishoma nezvishoma kubva kare kudzikira, vanoti kuti mitengo mafuta vachasara vari mukuru pamwero (kumativi $ 100 paminiti dhiramu). The Ruble pakudaro yanyatsosimba nemishonga upfumi Western. Muna 2014, apo mitengo mafuta zvikuru kutora kosi kupera, kuRussia mari pashure ichi isingadhuri hama kuti US. Kana pamusoro zvinopesana - zvichaita chete kumirira kusvikira dhora vachawira.

Ruble - kwete simba

Pane maonero kuti Russian Ruble, seboka, haisi simba mari. Maererano nokufungidzira kuti vatsigiri chinyorwa ichi, reNational bhengi katsamba kwakasimbisa nyika yedu kwemakore 10 nokuda 60% nenzira chaiyo. Kana, somuenzaniso, vagari kwemakore ose aya, vakaramba mari mu rubles, ivo akakunda zvakajeka. Panguva iyoyowo, kufanana nokusimbaradza wokuRussia mari, nezvoupfumi tenda, pakupedzisira, chichagamuchirwa akatemerwa mutengo mu. Pasinei guru Vhoriyamu mafuta kunze kwenyika, kuti mambure inflow mari (muchimiro mubayiro, shanduro) yakaderera. The Russian upfumi, saka, unogona kuona kubva dambudziko iri, uye Ruble, somugumisiro, mari vachadzoka "nyasha" nedzekare.

Kunyange zvakadaro, "yematanda"

Dzimwe nyanzvi dzinodavira kuti Ruble - mari, kuzorwa nawo zvakaoma kuva nechivimbo: sei kuita dhora vachawa kana simuka yokuRussia pamahombekombe katsamba - kufungidzira kuoma. Zvakakwana kuyeuka 90s, kana Ruble panguva isina kutombokodzera nguva aigona musava vamire "pepa" chinhu. Zvinhu zvakawanda dzinozivikanwa simba pamusoro Russian Gengi: ndiwo mutengo mafuta, mutemo wacho Central Bank chokuita rwezvemabhengi ezvinhu, imwe maitiro oga CB.

Zvaifungidzirwa kuti 2014 gore haatongi kuti Ruble iri devalued - zvikurukuru nokuti Russia akapinda WTO, saka kuti mugove kupinzwa anogona kumuka, uye mudzimba kugadzirwa - ipfupi. Pane inofananidza: kuguma 2013 euro asvika rubles 45, apo mumwe muna 2012, rakafarirwawo nechiyero kwainzi hazviiti. Naizvozvo hatigoni inorambidza Kuwedzera kune 50 vamapoka wokuRussia mari nokuda chete European. Uyewo, kuti US upfumi mumakore achangodarika, pane zviratidzo Kudzikamiswa, uye nyanzvi chokuita dhora vane tariro.

Hazvina zvazvinoreva kuti zvokufungidzira

Pasinei chokwadi kuti misika nyanzvi kuramba tariro pamusoro Ruble, hapana asingadi zano mari iri US mari sezvo rudzi nemari. Pane shanduro kuti vanhu artificially nacho mapepa vakakokwa nezvoupfumi, uyewo kudziyisa kuti makuhwa siyana uye guhwa haizovi chinangwa - kutsamwisa kutenga vagari Russian sezvinobvira hombe Vhoriyamu US mari. Izvi "vanatenzi" pamusoro Banknotes - kwete nevaya vanofungidzira, uye nechepakati mabhanga. Pavanondirwisa kusarudza kana dhora anowira, uye kana achinge akura.

Pane inonakidza nemaonero: kana vokuRussia vachakwanisa kuva simba redu Central Bank, iro richiri kushanda, asi kuchengeta zvinodiwa oligarchs, kwete vanhu, "notupukanana" anogona kuenda rubles 30 pakazopera 2014. Uyewo, dzimwe nyanzvi simbisa - kunyange pane rakapinza kudzikira mune mamiriro ezvoupfumi, kurasa ehurumende vane Reserve Fund, apo "unganidza" dzinenge 5 tiririyoni rubles. Zvaringana kufukidza hombe chaizvo bhajeti dhefisiti.

vimba maonero

Maererano nezvakataurwa vanoverengeka nyanzvi mukufamba mari zvokutengeserana mwedzi wokupedzisira akacherechedza nzendo, kana Central Bank of Russia asingadi kuitisa chero wokumwe Exchange kupindira. Weboka National Banknotes, saka, rikawira vanonzi "kwazvakarerekera mukoridho" apo Central Bank hazvina basa; mari vachamuka kana kuwa. "Bi-mari tswanda" mutengo panguva ino hazvirevi kusapfuudza dzinonetsa kukosha nokuti Central Bank of kukosha 41 rubles. Kune zvinokosha uye dzokufungidzira zvinhu mamwe maitiro yeRussian mari pamusoro dhora uye euro.

Achitaura rokutanga - pane kuwedzera wezvokutengeserana pachiyero weRussia. Izvi kukonzerwa kune nani mamiriro nemari Euro nharaunda nyika, inova huru zvoupfumi vadyidzani venyika yedu. The ECB anofembera kuti nharaunda yacho GDP anogona kukura nokuda 1,1% pakazopera 2014. Somugumisiro, zvinogona kukonzera kuwedzera kudiwa huni pfuma Russia, uyewo kuwedzera mitengo yavo. Uyewo, kwakaderera yacho Ruble kuzorwa dhora uye euro, kwakaitika muna 2014, chokwadi, kuvandudza basa pakuenzanisa wenyika nemhaka yezviri imupota kuzvitsinhanisa. Saka hakusi kuti bhizimisi Russian agere uye vakamirira, kana dhora achiwa.

Figures kubva State

Russian Bazi Economic Development anofembera kuti Ruble (mu chairo kunobudirira mazwi) muna 2014 achava simba ne 7.4% (apo imwe nguva kare kuderedza mutengo kukarukureta yakanga 1.5%). Nhamba iyi pakaziviswa chemhando mushumiri chechetere. Muna 2015, Russian mari anogona sezvo Economic Development anotenda vanosimbiswa 0.2% muna 2016 - 1,1%, uye zvishoma muna 2017 - 0.1%. The Ruble pamusoro dhora muna 2014, maererano sangano, pagore paavhareji yakanga 36.3 inokwana zviyero (zvichienzaniswa 33.9 pamusoro yapfuura kukarukureta). Muna 2015, mumwe "yembudzi", iri kutarisirwa mari 38,8 Banknotes Russian, muna 2016 kusvika chete - 38,7, muna 2017, zvakare, pasina kuchinja - 38,5.

Bazi Economic Development zvakare anotenda kuti avhareji yemari ari Upfu kwakafumuka mafuta Urals ngarava kuchawedzera kusvika 104 madhora, uye muna 2015-2016. chinozova 100 vamapoka US mari. Muna 2017, kuti "ndarama dema", maererano nesangano vakafanotaura kunaya mutengo kusvika madhora 98 muzana dhiramu. Hurumende iri pamwe haana kushamiswa apo dhora achawira mutengo.

The nenhamba kubva vaongorori

Maererano mamiriro for the mubhizimisi Bank UBS, kuRussia zvoupfumi muna 2014 kuchawedzera ne 1,5 chete% (nepo zvapfuura Masvomhu yakabudisa mufananidzo 2.5%), muna 2015 - 2% (kare kutarisirwa 2 , 8%). Nokuda revaluation wezvakaonekwa ezvinhu emari munyika yedu, vaongorori vanotarisira kuti chikwereti kupfungwa, kuti "hunyambiri mari" tswanda, rakanga ambotaurwa, kwaikodzera 44.2 rubles pakazopera 2014 (kare anonzi mufananidzo 40,7 Russian mari muzvikamu).

Nezveshoko positional ukama pakati dhora uye euro, pakazopera 2014, UBS vaongorori vanotarisira kuti 1 chairema American mari kuchaita mari Banknotes 1.25 European. Izvi nehasha maererano netarisiro dziri Ruble (37.6 paminiti dhora kubudikidza December 2014). Muna 2015 euro pamusoro kutenda UBS «yembudzi", kuwa mutengo kuti ufanane 1.20. Kubhangi kuti vaongorori vanotarisira kuti Russian Central Bank haazopindiri mari zvokutengeserana, asi regai ushe kuti mari mutemo kuti Central Bank ichava makasimba. Asi fungidziro dzavo ndiyo inenge nzvimbo zvichemo pamusoro pokumuka upfumi hwedu kana dhora achiwa.

Ukrainian chinhu

Nyanzvi Russian regai usakoshese ezvinhu muUkraine uye US Dollar pachinhu nomufambiro National mari imwe nyika yakavakidzana - yenyika mari. The International Monetary Fund anoona pamwero musoro pakati 10.5-11 vamapoka bank notes kune "yembudzi". Panewo tariro Muchiitiko umo dhora anogona kumuka 12-13 Hryvnia. Pakati zvikonzero - kuwedzera gasi mitengo nokuda Ukraine, kuwedzera kutengeserana vaishanda vose Russia, izvo zvinogona kukonzera nyika nengaidzo vachibhadhara dhefisiti uye kutungamirira kuderedza yacho Hryvnia. Chinokosha pamusoro mitemo yacho IMF.

Kana mari achapa Ukraine chikwereti, munyika National mari pamusoro dhora anogona kusimbisa. Tranche kubva IMF anokwanisa kuva chiratidzo kune makambani kubva mhiri kwemakungwa uye Entrepreneurs. Mumwe dzimwe akanaka zviratidzi - mafungire nevatungamiriri Russia uye United States pave nokugadziriswa zvinhu munyika kuburikidza nedzenyu gwara. Asi zvematongerwo mutambo - zvichiitika chakaoma kuziva chokwadi kana dhora achawira muUkraine.

chenjera Zvaifungidzirwa

Nyanzvi dzinotaura kuti kunzwisisa kuti dhora achazvikudza kwakavakirwa "Chokwadi yemberi", zviri nyore - nemhaka yokuti Central Bank of Russia rinobudisa kuti Gengi zuva somukuru mukuru kuti mangwana. Zviri rakaoma zvikuru kuti-refu Zvaifungidzirwa uti kuti chokwadi kana dhora kana euro vachawira, haagoni. US Dollar Gengi pachinhu Russia ndiyo zvikuru pakufambira mapoka maviri zvinhu. Chekutanga, ndiye, sezvo vakadaro, nesimba Ruble. It zvinoenderana ezvinhu ari Russian zvoupfumi uye enyika kwendangariro. Chechipiri - mari pamusoro dzimwe mari nyika (kunyanya euro), kuti kufanotaura zvinokosheswa zviri nyore. Naizvozvo, vaongorori vari zano musika vatambi kuvimba akawandisa refu Zvaifungidzirwa pamusoro maitiro ari American Banknotes.